WEDNESDAY 14TH OCTOBER – 17:45 BST

🇪🇺 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE ⚽

FEYENOORD VS. COMO

The Champions League meeting with Feyenoord and Como, offers many angles for profit I think on Wednesday evening. It’s an intriguing clash between two attack-minded sides whose European campaigns have started in very different ways. Feyenoord travel into the contest’s second matchday looking to recover from a heavy defeat, while Como arrive with confidence after an impressive debut on the continental stage.

Como began their campaign with a commanding 4–1 victory over RB Leipzig on September 10th and that result announced that Cesc Fàbregas’s side had to be taken seriously. Feyenoord, meanwhile, suffered a 5–1 defeat away to Barcelona. However, to be fair to the Rotterdammers, Barca have been blowing away opponents. This result was a setback in an otherwise positive opening to the season.

FEYENOORD

Giovanni van Bronckhorst’s sides form at home provides encouragement. They sit at the top of the Eredivisie with 20 points from six wins and two draws and last weekend, a 2-0 win over AZ showed the Nou Camp loss is not representative of their overall start to the campaign. For this one, playing at De Kuip should help Feyenoord establish a more aggressive rhythm. The atmosphere will encourage an early press, with the forwards attempting to force mistakes and win possession in advanced areas.

However, the Barca reference does remain relevant. Conceding five goals shows how difficult a contest can be when Feyenoord are drawn into an open game against opponents who move the ball quickly and attack the spaces behind their defensive line.

Feyenoord’s probable starting XI, includes Anis Hadj Moussa (five goals in 7), Nacho Ferri (five goals in 7) and Luca Valente (four goals, one assist in 8) in attack and Gjivai Zechiel has already seen five goals and four assists in 8 league games. The hosts will have attacking outlets capable of testing Como, but their ability to maintain defensive balance will be equally important.

COMO

The Italian side’s performance against Leipzig in their first appearance in the competition demonstrated their capacity to create chances and convert them against quality opposition. Their domestic results have been less convincing, collecting 11 points from six league matches, placing them sixth, and had lost 2–0 away to Frosinone just before the international break. They subsequently drew 0–0 with Roma last weekend despite getting 19 shots off.

One their shot production, Como have registered 110 shots in the league, the highest total in the comparison to Inter, second with 108, while Roma have took 96. That figure provides a compelling starting point for our first bet – Como to take 20 or more shots. Como’s ability to generate attempts is not simply based on the Leipzig result; their domestic shot volume also indicates a team that regularly gets into shooting positions.

With the total of 110 shots across the six league matches played by that date equates to approximately 18.3 attempts per match. Reaching 20 or more against Feyenoord would therefore require Como to exceed that rough league average. It is plausible, but it is not automatic.

The forward line is strong, despite Moise Kean’s absence due to injury. Argentine wonderkid Nico Paz will play behind striker Tasos Douvikas, supported by Assane Diao and Martin Baturina. Paz’s creativity and the width offered by the supporting attackers could help Como sustain pressure. The key tactical issue is whether Como can maintain possession high up the pitch without being caught by Feyenoord’s counterattacks. If they fall behind, their need to chase the game could increase their shot count considerably. If they score early, Feyenoord may be forced to attack more aggressively, creating further opportunities for both sides.

BETS

So lets have Como to take 20 or more shots with Bet365 at a price of 3.50. The price offers an attractive potential return if Como’s chance of reaching 20 attempts is materially higher than that threshold.

Como’s shot volume is the most interesting angle because it targets a measurable feature of their playing style rather than relying on the final result. The reported 110 Serie A attempts gives the selection a credible statistical starting point.

If you are looking for something else, and maybe trim the shots count down, Over 2.5 Goals looks good too. Landing in four of the last five Feyenoord games, and three of the last five Como games, although it’s a short price of 1.44 at Bet365, it might be worth shoving this into a Bet Builder.

I also like Gjival Zechiel to hit one or more Shots on Target at 1.90. The midfielder has hit the target 11 times in the last 10 games. Adding these three together in a builder gives you a nice price of 4.50. A 30% Winnings Boost is available at Bet365 which will shove this up to 5.50.

If you joining me with this selections, good luck.

If you joining me with these selections, good luck.

Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org

TotalDutchFootball.com

THURSDAY 10TH SEPTEMBER – 17:45 BST

🇪🇺 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE – MATCHDAY ONE ⚽

PSV VS. SHAKHTAR DONETSK

Since the Champions League evolved from the European Cup in 1992, PSV have reached the competition for a 20th time, setting a new record for a Dutch club and moving clear of Ajax, who have qualified on 19 occasions. PSV begin their latest European campaign with a clash against Shakhtar Donetsk, and Will Burns believes the Dutch champions should have too much quality for their Ukrainian opponents on Thursday night.

PSV

PSV have bounced back in style after faltering in the Johan Cruyff Schaal (4-0 to AZ) and the opening day of the Eredivisie (2-2 at home to Fortuna Sittard) to win four games in a row, but they have failed to keep a clean sheet. They beat Excelsior away 2-1, Groningen at home 5-1, then 6-1 away in Utrecht and last week beating Ajax at the Johan Cruyff Arena 3-1 in a controversial match.

In Amsterdam, Peter Bosz adopted a more pragmatic approach. His side held just 48% of possession, and both them and Ajax hit five shots on target. After the match, Bosz praised his team’s clinical finishing and the composed, mature manner in which they controlled the second half.

PSV will be without several key players for this clash. The man who Carlo Ancelotti has just called up to the Brazil squad, Mauro Júnior is suspended, while Kiliann Sildillia and Jerdy Schouten remain sidelined through injury. Alassane Pléa, and new signings Sam Lammers and Sami Ouaissa have yet to regain full fitness, while another newcomer Mikkel Bro Hansen was left out of the squad. There is better news regarding Dennis Man, who is in line to return provided he completes Wednesday’s training session without any setbacks.

SHAKHTAR

After impressively reaching the Conference League semi-finals last season, Shakhtar return to the Champions League and renew acquaintances with PSV, a side they faced during the 2024/25 campaign. Their previous meeting produced one of the most dramatic turnarounds of the competition’s history. Shakhtar stormed into a 2-0 half-time lead at the Philips Stadion in November 2024 and looked on course for a famous victory, only for an incredibly late collapse of extraordinary fashion. PSV staged a remarkable comeback, striking in the 87th, 90th and 95th minute to snatch a 3-2 win.

Arda Turan’s men arrived in Maastricht on Monday and will stay there until Thursday. After departing Lviv by bus in the morning, the team crossed the Ukrainian-Polish border before continuing to Rzeszów, where they boarded a charter flight to Maastricht Airport. Wednesday’s schedule saw an open training session in front of the press.

On paper, Shakhtar may not attract the same attention as some of the competitions’ bigger names, but the Ukrainian champions have made a strong start to the campaign. They travelled to the Netherlands in confidence, sitting second in the Ukrainian Premier League after five games, joint on 12 points with Polissya Zhytomyr, whom they lost to, 2-0 at the end of August. They opened the season with three straight wins with Brazilian forward Kaua Elias, the standout performer in the opening match, hitting a hat-trick in the 5-1 win at home to FC Kudrivka. They have scored ten goals across the five games and conceded four so far in the league.

Their momentum was briefly halted by the defeat to Polissia, but it prompted a candid response from Turan. The former Turkish international openly criticised his side’s lack of aggression in challenges and the tempo of their build-up play, while also accepting responsibility for the disappointing performance.

However, Shakhtar responded positively at the weekend. After conceding an early goal against Karpaty Lviv, they rallied to secure a 2-1 victory. Luca Meirelles restored parity before Alisson capitalised on a turnover in possession, racing through on goal and calmly finishing the winner. That strike could be particularly significant ahead of the trip to Eindhoven. With PSV often committing numbers forward and defending high up the pitch, turnovers can quickly create opportunities for quick, direct attackers.

Alisson, in particular, is a player to watch. The Brazilian winger has enjoyed an outstanding start to the season, earning the club’s Player of the Month award for August and once again proving decisive in Shakhtar’s latest victory.

They are slightly weakened through injuries to Brazilian pair, attacking midfielder Pedrinho (hamstring) and central defender Marlon Santos (muscle injury since May last year). Both have been added to the Champions League squad, but are set to miss out this game.

ANALYSIS

PSV will be eager to make a fast start and strike first in Eindhoven. An early goal would immediately put the Dutch champions in control and force Shakhtar to abandon a more cautious approach. The last thing Peter Bosz’s side wants is to fall behind and allow the visitors to sit deep, defend in numbers and look to exploit counter-attacking opportunities. Should PSV grab the opener, the game is likely to become more open, creating the kind of space their attacking players have thrived in over recent weeks. If the deadlock remains intact for an extended period, or if Shakhtar take the lead, memories of previous frustrating encounters could quickly resurface.

That balance is what makes this contest so intriguing. PSV undoubtedly possess greater attacking quality and arrive in excellent form, but Shakhtar are far from a side travelling to Eindhoven simply to limit the damage. Like we mentioned earlier, confidence will be high for Shakhtar, who come into the match after winning four of their opening five league fixtures, and they have enough quality to pose a genuine threat.

The Ukrainains have conceded in three of the five games this season, and the statistics strongly point towards an entertaining, high-scoring contest in Eindhoven. As we well know, PSV games are virtually always reliable for goals, with both teams finding the net in 19 of their last 21 competitive fixtures, while only one of their previous 32 matches across all competitions has produced fewer than three goals. Bosz’s side play an aggressive, attack-minded style that creates chances at both ends of the pitch.

Shakhtar, meanwhile, have shown they can remain competitive even when beaten, with five of their last seven defeats coming by just a single-goal margin. Their European fixtures also tend to deliver goals, with nine of the club’s last 12 continental matches featuring over 2.5 goals. With PSV’s free-scoring attack and Shakhtar’s ability to threaten on the counter, all the signs point towards another game containing multiple goals.

PREDICTION

Goals, goals, goals. With home advantage and the better squad, PSV should find a win here but they always concede so they’ll have to find at least two. PSV to win with Both Teams to Score is 2.63 at Paddy Power for our first selection.

Obviously you cannot ignore the Both Teams to Score and I think we will have a little go at a Bet Ladder too, laddering the amount of goals in this one. We will start the line at Over 3.5 Goals with 1 unit and ladder up to Over 6.5 Goals. If we get a 5-2 or a 4-3, we’re a winner of the all the rungs. A total of 2.5 units risked on this one.

If you joining me with these selections, good luck.

Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org

TotalDutchFootball.com

WEDNESDAY 9TH SEPTEMBER – 17:45 BST

🇪🇺 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE – MATCHDAY ONE ⚽

FC BARCELONA VS. FEYENOORD

It’s a tremendously difficult start to the Champions League campaign for Feyenoord as they head to the Nou Camp to face FC Barcelona on Matchday One. With most games starring the world’s elite, it’s hard to find any value, but Will Burns is putting his faith in one man to give us a chance at some profit by full-time.

FC BARCELONA

Barcelona’s impressive start to the season has only heightened expectations ahead of this match with Feyenoord. Hansi Flick’s side have scored a massive 17 goals in just four matches, kept three clean sheets and conceded only twice, underlining the momentum they carry into Europe. Two of those sides were Valencia (5-0) and Athletic Bilbao (2-0) – both arguably as good as the Rotterdammers.

With two attack-minded teams set to meet, the stage is perfectly set for an entertaining night and the hosts will be looking to make a statement. The Champions League remains their ultimate objective. Despite consistently competing among Europe’s elite, the Catalans have endured years of disappointment in the competition. This season feels different.

Following a productive summer and an excellent start under Flick, there is growing belief that Barcelona have the quality and balance needed to compete for the biggest prize. The team’s defensive structure appears far more reliable than in previous campaigns, while the midfield has offered both control and stability.

Up front, Barcelona’s attacking unit has been ruthless, scoring freely despite operating without a traditional number nine. Anthony Gordon, is already a firm fan favourite with the fans, with four assists in four games, but the Scouser is still seeking his first goal in a Barcelona shirt. He netted an impressive ten times in last season’s competition, more than Lamine Yamal. Operating as Barcelona’s auxiliary striker, Raphinha has adapted seamlessly to his new responsibilities. The 29-year-old has been one of the team’s standouts so far this season, contributing six goals and an assist across four La Liga games.

They will be without first choice right-back Eric Garcia due to suspension carried over from last season and his absence leaves Flick with Jules Kounde as the most natural replacement. However, the Frenchman has produced mixed performances whenever deployed this season, however, his attacking contribution and link-up play with Yamal are seen as valuable assets, but his defensive lapses and occasional concentration issues raises concerns.

That could open the door for João Cancelo to feature on the right side of defence. With Xavi Espart impressing at left-back, Cancelo offers an experienced and attack-minded alternative who could suit Barcelona’s approach against Giovanni van Bronckhorst’s men. Another possibility would be to hand Alejandro Balde his first start of the campaign at left-back, allowing Espart or Kounde to switch across to the opposite flank. Flick has many options at his disposal.

FEYENOORD

Gio van Bronckhorst’s side earned their route into the tournament by finishing second to PSV last season, but this competition is something else for them. Drawn alongside Inter Milan, FC Porto and Galatasaray, they face a demanding league stage challenge, and the trip to the Nou Camp presents obviously the most difficult test, although it is far from impossible. Feyenoord will need to remain organised and defensively disciplined to frustrate Barcelona’s potent attack and that will be their best hope.

Although they lost their top scorer Ayase Ueda for Lille on deadline day, they have enjoyed a solid beginning to the Eredivisie campaign, winning three and two draws, scoring 13 goals in the process. However, defensive vulnerabilities remain evident, with just one clean sheet recorded so far. The Ueda loss forced them to reshape their frontline with Nacho Ferri. The summer signing from Westerlo, was handed his first start against NEC and made an immediate impact, providing an assist and offering an encouraging glimpse of what he could bring to the team.

History does not offer the Rotterdammers much encouragement heading into their trip to Catalonia. The two sides have met only once before in European competition, with Barca drawing 0-0 in Rotterdam before securing a 3-0 victory in the second leg. What’s even more unnerving for the visitors is Barcelona’s formidable record against Dutch opposition at home, having never lost to a club from the Netherlands at the Nou Camp, recording six wins and three draws.

Yet, Feyenoord arrive in Spain with reasons for optimism of their own. While the Rotterdam club has dropped points at home against Go Ahead Eagles and ADO Den Haag, they have been flawless on the road in the Eredivisie, winning all three away fixtures.

ANALYSIS

That NEC victory I mentioned above, provided great evidence that Feyenoord can adapt their approach when required. Despite seeing just 38% possession, they were the more dangerous side, registering six shots on target compared to NEC’s two. The highly creative and dangeorus Gjivai Zechiël continued his impressive start to the campaign by scoring his fourth league goal before setting up strikes for Luciano Valente and debutant Jerayno Schaken.

That performance could serve as the blueprint against Barcelona. Feyenoord will not dominate possession at the Nou Camp, and making a compact defensive structure and quick transitions on the counter a far more realistic route to success. If they can absorb Barcelona’s early pressure and break forward efficiently, they might be able to trouble the hosts. Might.

PREDICTION

Trying to find value in this market felt like searching for a needle in a haystack, but one selection eventually caught my eye.

One thing I noticed was involved the young Dutch midfielder Gjivai Zechiël. Feyenoord’s 22-year-old academy graduate has enjoyed a superb start to the season, contributing four goals and three assists in his first five appearances. What stands out even more is his willingness to shoot from distance.

Zechiël has attempted seven shots from outside the box so far this campaign, scoring once and testing the goalkeeper with three others. That means four of his seven long-range efforts have hit the target, giving him an impressive 57% accuracy rate.

Flick’s side have shown a willingness to concede long-range shooting opportunities so far this season. Rayo Vallecano attempted four shots from outside the box, with one finding the target in Barça’s 5-2 victory. Athletic Bilbao managed two efforts from distance but failed to test the goalkeeper in a 2-0 Barcelona win, while Elche registered two long-range attempts, none of which were on target, during Barça’s 5-0 opening-day triumph.

Given that trend, there could be value in the 5.50 offered by Bet365 for Zechiël to register a shot on target from outside the penalty area.

If you joining me with these selections, good luck.

Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org

TotalDutchFootball.com