Five bets picked out here and I will be incredibly quick with the reasoning as I have a busy few weeks ahead with the International Break approaching. Follow the site for tips throughout the next three weeks but for now, let’s dive into Saturday’s action in the Eredivisie.
SPARTA ROTTERDAM VS. SC HEERENVEEN
I think the draw looks a strong possibility here, with Sparta drawing two of their last five matches and Heerenveen sharing the points in three of their previous five outings. However, both sides are in desperate need of points, so a goalless stalemate does feel unlikely, but Both Teams to Score is priced too short for my liking.
I really like Milan Zonneveld to find the net. Correct scores such as 1-1, 2-2, or even a higher-scoring draw appeals to me, with the 22-year-old striker scoring four goals in his last four consecutive games, and is averaging an impressive 4.66 shots per 90 minutes for Sparta this season.
Sparta’s recent results have produced plenty of goals, with score lines of 3-1, 3-3, 1-2, 2-2 and 1-4. They are creating plenty of chances too, averaging five shots on target per game across their last four matches. Heerenveen, meanwhile, continue to look vulnerable defensively despite keeping a rare clean sheet in last weekend’s 0-0 draw with Telstar. They are also averaging around five shots on target per game, but have conceded nine goals in their last five matches while scoring six themselves. With both teams regularly involved in open games, another entertaining, high-scoring draw would not be a surprise. Two bets in this one.
AJAX VS. EXCELSIOR
Ajax face a tough test in Excelsior who have proved they are no slouches this campaign. Sitting in the sixth, Excelsior have scored 13 goals and conceded just seven goals in the first six games. They have won three, kept two clean sheets, drew 2-2 with NEC and lost at home to PSV and Utrecht both by 2-1.
Ajax are obviously favourites and I do think they will win, they are scoring goals for fun. Two 5-1 wins last two weeks at home to Willem II and away to Fortuna Sittard after tasting a 3-1 defeat to PSV. Prior to that they scored four without reply away to Telstar, beat Sion 9-5 over two legs in the Conference League qualifiers. They have two clean sheets all season so far in all competitions over 13 games: a 2-0 and 4-0 away to Zwolle and the aforementioned Telstar.
Excelsior can, and I think they will find the net on Saturday evening and I have to pick Irakli Yegoian to be involved again. The Georgian midfielder has six goal involvements in the six league matches so far, scoring twice with four assists. He is a handsome price for a goal or an assist.
WILLEM II VS. FORTUNA SITTARD
Let’s finish on a Bet Builder: Fortuna to win and Mohamed Ihattaren to score or assist. I’ve talked about Fortuna Sittard a lot this season already and how they have been surprisingly successful, well they face a Willem II that have not been a surprise. Coming up from the Eerste Divisie last season, it was thought they would struggle in the higher division this year and so far, they have. I cannot see them picking up a point here either.
Fortuna sit in seventh with ten points, Willem II on just 2 points and second bottom. The Tilburgers have conceded a massive 19 goals in the six games so far, scoring six times. Sittard have saw victories against ADO Den Haag, FC Groningen and SC Cambuur while losing to AZ Alkmaar and Ajax. They held champions PSV to a 2-2 draw at the Philips Stadion on the opening day. Despite last weeks’ 5-1 thumping off Ajax, they look in good stead to get third away victory of the season here and Mohamed Ihattaren looks most likely to be involved in a goal.
The Moroccan right-winger has found himself scoring three goals with two assists so far this season, and 1.11 goal involvements per 90 so far. This gives us a nice double in the late game on Saturday.
If you joining me with this selections, good luck.
SPARTA VS. HEERENVEEN ⚽️ BET 1: Draw 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.75 at Bet365
⚽️ BET 2: Milan Zonneveld to score 💷 1pt Best Odds: 2.63 at Sky Bet/Paddy Power
AJAX VS. EXCELSIOR ⚽️ BET 1: Ajax win/Both Teams to Score 💷 1pt Best Odds: 2.20 at Sky Bet
⚽️ BET 2: Irakli Yegoian to score or assist 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.20 at Bet365
WILLEM II VS. FORTUNA SITTARD ⚽️ BET BUILDER Fortuna win Mohammed Ihattaran to score or assist 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.75 at Bet365
Over the years, I’ve found it profitable to combine three of the most in‑form strikers into a treble — provided the odds make sense.
He has ONLY scored ten goals in six games but let’s risk it and start with Jean Paul N’Djoli of Heracles Almelo. The Frenchman is on fire although this is his side’s toughest test, you cannot ignore him. Also in that game, Ferdy Druijf scored again last weekend and now has scored six in six, scoring in five of the six games.
Rounding out the treble is 35-year-old Henk Veerman, who sits just beneath N’Djoli in the scoring charts with eight goals in six games. He has found the net in four of the six games so far, including four against FC Dordrecht on August 28th. He looks good to score on Friday away to Jong AZ.
It’s a pretty short price this week, 7.94 at BetMGM, but those three are my most confident picks to find the net on Friday night.
MORE GOALS, GOALS, GOALS
I have did the number crunching and these six games are the most likely for Over 2.5 Goals and Over 3.5 Goals for our Friday night goals accas.
Almere City vs. Heracles
Jong AZ vs. FC Volendam
FC Den Bosch vs. Helmond Sport
FC Eindhoven vs. FC Emmen
Jong Utrecht vs. VVV Venlo
RKC Waalwijk vs. MVV Maastricht
⚽️ GOALSCORER TREBLE Ferdy Druijf (Almere City) Jean-Paul N’Djoli (Heracles) Henk Veerman (Volendam) 💷 1pt Best Odds: 7.94 at BetMGM
⚽️ OVER 2.5 GOALS ACCA 💷 1pt Best Odds: 7.59 at Bet365
⚽️ OVER 3.5 GOALS ACCA 💷 0.5pt Best Odds: 53.76 at Bet365
Despite these two teams struggling below their expectations, this should be a cracking match on Friday at the Euroborg with lots of chances, goals and defensive lapses. I can’t trust either team to pick up the win but they’re should be goals at both ends writes Will Burns.
FC GRONINGEN
Despite a run of four matches without a victory, confidence remains high within the FC Groningen camp. Dick Lukkien’s side earned a 1-1 draw away to Go Ahead Eagles on September 12th, taking the lead through Brynjólfur Willumsson’s excellent strike from outside the box. Prior to that, Groningen shared a 2-2 draw with FC Twente at Euroborg, where Thom van Bergen and Tygo Land were both on the scoresheet.
The results may not have produced maximum points, but Groningen have continued to demonstrate their attacking quality. Before the draw with Twente, they were narrowly beaten 3-2 at home by Fortuna Sittard, with David van der Werff finding the net and an own goal from Justin Hubner helping to keep the contest alive until the closing stages. The recurring theme has been Groningen’s ability to create chances and score goals, although defensive errors have often prevented them from turning positive performances into victories.
Much of the spotlight has fallen on Thom van Bergen following a series of influential displays and important goal contributions, while local media continue to emphasise the importance of Euroborg as a difficult venue for visiting sides. Groningen are expected to be without Malcolm Jeng, Travis Hernes, Nikolas Brandis and Tyrique Mercera, while Ryan Metu remains a doubt. Even so, reports suggest Lukkien is likely to stick closely to the side that drew with Go Ahead Eagles, with Van Bergen and Willumsson once again expected to spearhead the attack as Groningen look to combine their attacking threat with greater defensive solidity.
PEC ZWOLLE
PEC Zwolle will be looking to bounce back from a disastrous and damn right humiliating 7-0 defeat to Feyenoord, a result that has dominated the headlines in the region this week. Feyenoord controlled the match from start to finish, enjoying 62% possession and ruthlessly exposing the defensive frailties that have become a growing concern for the Blauwvingers. This clash is the perfect opportunity for a response, although there are lingering doubts over both confidence levels and the team’s defensive organisation.
Results prior to that defeat paint a more mixed picture. Zwolle earned a respectable 2-2 draw away at Sparta Rotterdam, with Ibrahim Cissoko and Koen Kostons finding the net, while they also claimed an impressive 2-0 victory at sc Heerenveen thanks to goals from Nick Viergever and Kostons. Those performances demonstrate that PEC possess enough quality to trouble opponents, but their recent results also highlight an inability to consistently maintain the same level from week to week. The pressure on Zwolle head coach Henry van der Vegt has grew, and team news has not helped matters ahead of the trip to Euroborg. Midfielder Ryan Thomas has been ruled out, while Younes Namli, Filip Krastev and Sherel Floranus are also unavailable through injury or lack of fitness. The absences of Thomas and Namli are particularly notable given their experience and influence in midfield, leaving Zwolle slightly short of leadership and stability as they attempt to recover from last weekend’s heavy setback.
PREDICTION
While Groningen look the more likely winners on paper, I can’t trust either side to pick up a win. Groningen’s attacking performances have been encouraging, but they do concede, while PEC Zwolle are still searching for a response after their recent struggles. Goals look the most reliable angle, with both teams possessing enough quality to get goals and enough defensive vulnerabilities to make Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score both confidence selections.
At least three goals has landed in eight of the ten combined league matches (so have Over 3.5 Goals) involving these sides this season, while both teams have scored in every Groningen match and in three of PEC Zwolle’s six outings.
But let’s boost the Bet Builder, Koen Kostons and Brynjólfur Willumsson stand out as appealing shots-on-target selections. Kostons has recorded an effort on target in all but two league appearances this season (Feyenoord 7-0 and Ajax 2-0), while Willumsson has been one of Groningen’s most dangerous attacking outlets, scoring four goals in his last six matches and registering eight shots on target across the campaign.
In a single, Tobias Sommer is priced far too high to register a shot on target. The Zwolle midfielder has managed at least one effort on target in four of his six appearances this season and has recorded eight total shots during that period. Given PEC’s need to bounce back and the likelihood that they will have to contribute offensively to get a result in Groningen, the price on Sommer looks too generous.
If you joining me with this selections, good luck.
⚽️ BET 1: BET BUILDER Koen Kostons 1+Shots On Target Brynjólfur Willumsson 1+Shots On Target Over 2.5 Goals Both Teams To Score 💷 1pts Best Odds: 2.65 at Bet365
⚽️ BET 2: Tobias Sommer 1+Shots On Target 💷 1pts Best Odds: 3.00 at Bet365
AZ Alkmaar face Sunderland on Wednesday evening looking to continue their unbeaten start to the season and make an early statement in the Europa League. While much of the focus in England has been on Sunderland’s first European home match in more than five decades, AZ arrive on Wearside in impressive form, having collected 16 points from their opening six Eredivisie matches and established themselves as one of the Netherlands’ early pace-setters alongside PSV Eindhoven writes Will Burns.
The fixture represents a significant test for Leeroy Echteld’s side. The current KNVB Beker holders have adapted well to the demands of balancing domestic and European football previously, and will see this trip as an opportunity to measure themselves against strong Premier League opposition.
SUNDERLAND
Sunderland have made a solid, if unspectacular, return to life in the Premier League following promotion in 2024/25 and secured a surprising European qualification, the club’s first venture into Europe since 1973. So far this season, manager Régis Le Bris has overseen a campaign that has produced four points from their opening four league matches, although their 14th-place position offers little indication of their overall performances.
The Black Cats suffered a setback against Arsenal at the weekend, where Reinildo’s red card compounded an already difficult afternoon. However, the left-back is available for European action, while Habib Diarra and Romaine Mundle remain unavailable through injury. Sunderland’s defensive record remains encouraging, with five goals conceded across their last four league fixtures, and the atmosphere inside a sold-out Stadium of Light, hungry for European football, is expected to provide a major boost.
With Granit Xhaka as captain, AZ should expect a physical side in Sunderland. The Swiss midfielder epitomises what they are about. They have developed a clear identity under Le Bris: they refuse to be controlled. They are among the most physical teams in the division and combine that aggression with an intense pressing game, and consistently looking to force opponents into uncomfortable situations rather than sitting off and protecting space. Even when teams attempt to create a numerical advantage during the build-up phase by dropping a midfielder into the back line, Sunderland remain committed to pushing forward and engaging opponents man-for-man.
That approach is unusual because most teams are reluctant to defend deep using full man-to-man marking. Sunderland, however, are prepared to take that risk. When opponents create a back three against their front line, they continue to press aggressively, with midfielders stepping out and defenders willing to follow runners into advanced areas. The aim is to force long balls and by turning matches into a constant battle for aerial duels, second balls and loose possession, Sunderland drag opponents into a contest that suits their physical strengths – especially the likes of Brian Brobbey up front or Dan Ballard at the back.
Sunderland’s aggressive mentality also shapes their play in possession. Much of their territorial dominance is built around direct deliveries into dangerous areas, particularly through Ballard, who is regularly targeted from long passes and set-piece situations. Long throws in the final third further reinforce this strategy, creating repeated opportunities for Ballard and other aerially dominant players to attack second phases. In open play, Sunderland possess an excellent outlet in Brobbey, whose ability to hold the ball up and bring runners into play allows the team to quickly gain territory. While they are capable of building more patiently through dropping midfielders and split centre-backs, their overall objective remains the same: advance the ball quickly, create chaos, and force opponents into a physical battle that few teams are comfortable facing.
AZ ALKMAAR
AZ’s season has gathered momentum quickly under Echteld. The Alkmaar club remain unbeaten in all competitions, having set the tone with an emphatic 4-0 victory over PSV, albeit they were down to ten men, in the Johan Cruyff Shield before continuing their strong league form. Their KNVB Beker triumph last season secured European qualification and confidence remains high within the squad.
There are some injury concerns ahead of the trip to the North East of England. Leading scorer Ro-Zangelo Daal is a doubt after picking up a knock against Willem II, while Mateo Chavez and Denso Kasius are also being assessed. Long-term absentee Stije Resink remains sidelined but even so, AZ continue to impress through the experience of Jordy Clasie and the attacking threat of Mexx Meerdink, who has stepped up following Troy Parrott’s summer big money move to Real Betis.
Generally operating in a flexible 4-2-3-1 formation that provides both attacking freedom and defensive stability, AZ to play at a high tempo, stretching the pitch through their wide players to create space in central areas. Much of their build-up play is orchestrated by Clasie, who acts as the deep-lying playmaker, while the attacking midfielder Kees Smit is given licence to operate between the lines and support the forward.
When out of possession, AZ quickly retreat into a compact shape, with centre-backs Wouter Goes and Lewis Schouten providing a physically imposing presence at the heart of the defence. The Alkmaar side are comfortable soaking up pressure and waiting for opportunities to break forward through direct passing and quick combinations. Their tactical flexibility allows them to vary both the tempo and their attacking approach depending on the situation.
Sunderland will need to pay particular attention to AZ’s threat in the wide areas. The pace and creativity of Calvin Stengs and Elijah Dijkstra down the right flank could pose problems for Nilson Angulo and Reinildo, potentially forcing the Sunderland pair into foul or card trouble. Likewise, on the opposite side, if fit, Ro-Zangelo Daal has the speed and directness to trouble right-back Nordi Mukiele.
ANALYSIS
This will be the first ever meeting between the clubs and presents an intriguing clash of styles. Sunderland’s emotional homecoming to European competition will undoubtedly create a hostile environment, but AZ arrive with considerably more recent continental experience and a squad accustomed to competing for silverware.
From a footballing perspective, AZ may have a slight edge. Their unbeaten start, strong defensive structure and ability to rotate effectively have been key factors in their rise this season. However, Sunderland’s home advantage should give them the edge, despite AZ possessing the technical quality and midfield control needed to handle difficult away assignments.
The referee in this one is Frenchman Jérémie Pignard, who has developed a reputation as a relatively strict official in UEFA competitions. He regularly produces card totals above the average seen in many domestic leagues. Across his European appointments, he has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per game in the Europa Conference League, based on five matches over the past two seasons, while his lone Champions League assignment last season produced seven yellow cards. His broader record shows an average of 3.56 yellow cards and 0.17 red cards per game overall.
With Sunderland expected to play at a high intensity, strength game and AZ’s pace on the flanks likely to force defenders into difficult one-on-one situations, Pignard’s card-happy record suggests disciplinary markets could be worth monitoring, particularly if the contest becomes stretched or physical in the latter stages.
Will Sunderland need to tone down their tackling and aggressive style for a European referee?
Could they get could get themselves in trouble early on if they don’t.
This is not the Premier League.
PREDICTION
Sunderland’s home advantage and the unique atmosphere generated by their first European fixture at the Stadium of Light in more than five decades could prove significant. However, AZ’s strong start to the season means this contest appears more evenly balanced than the odds suggest.
The hosts are expected to start aggressively in front of a packed crowd, making a Sunderland lead at both half-time and full-time an appealing option. That said, AZ have shown resilience throughout the season and will be capable of testing the home side.
A narrow score line looks plausible given the strengths of both teams. Sunderland’s matches have generally been competitive affairs, while AZ possess enough attacking quality to ensure they remain a threat throughout the contest.
Both sides have demonstrated consistent attacking output in recent weeks. Sunderland have found the net regularly in the opening stages of the season, while AZ have scored in each of their last five matches, suggesting there is a strong possibility of goals at both ends.
If you joining me with this selections, good luck.
⚽️ BET 1: Sunderland win/Both Teams to Score 💷 1pts Best Odds: 3.25 at Various ⚽️ BET 2: Correct Score: Sunderland win 2-1 💷 0.5pts Best Odds: 8.50 at Bet365
JUST ADDED! ⚽️ BET 3: Sunderland to receive 3 or more cards 💷 1pts Best Odds: 3.25 at Sky Bet ⚽️ BET 4: BET BUILDER LADDER Thomas Meunier to have a shot on target Brian Brobbey to commit one or more foul Reinildo Mandava to commit one or more foul Daniel Ballard to commit one or more foul 💷 1pts Best Odds: 6.00 at Bet365 ⚽️ BET 5: BET BUILDER LADDER – PART 2 Brian Brobbey to commit two or more fouls Reinildo Mandava to commit two or more fouls Daniel Ballard to commit two or more fouls 💷 0.5pt Best Odds: 16.00 at Bet365 ⚽️ BET 6: BET BUILDER LADDER – PART 3 Brian Brobbey to commit three or more fouls Reinildo Mandava to commit three or more fouls Daniel Ballard to commit three or more fouls 💷 0.25pt Best Odds: 181.00 at Bet365 ⚽️ BET 7: Ro-Zangelo Daal to have two or more shots on target 💷 0.5pt Best Odds: 9.00 at Bet365
We have midweek Eredivisie action with Ajax welcoming Willem II to the Johan Cruyff Arena as they look to keep pace in the title race. PSV sit top of the table on goal difference ahead of AZ, while Ajax trail the leading duo by six points in fifth place.
A victory on Tuesday would halve that deficit to just three points, move up to fourth and apply a little pressure on the teams above them. Will Burns expects the Amsterdammers to get the job done, although Willem II possess enough threat of their own.
AJAX
Last weekend, De Godenzonen were looking to bounce back from a 3-1 defeat to bitter rivals PSV, and they appeared in danger of dropping points for only the third time in the league this season when they entered the final half-hour of their match on Saturday against Fortuna Sittard. They were locked at 1-1 but Michael’s men produced a devastating late surge, scoring four times in the final half hour to secure an emphatic 5-1 victory.
In the league, they have struggled to turn the Johan Cruyff Arena into a fortress. Ajax are now winless in their last five home league matches stretching back to last season, collecting just two points from a possible 15, a statistic that may leave some supporters feeling uneasy ahead of Tuesday’s encounter. However, recent trends suggest there is every chance those concerns could quickly fade.
Ajax have opened the scoring in eight of their last 11 matches and will be confident of making another fast start against a Willem II side that has conceded the first goal in five of the previous six meetings between the clubs.
Michel will once again be without loan signing Simon Adingra, who remains sidelined with a foot injury and is still awaiting his Ajax debut. There are also concerns at the back, with experienced defender Daley Blind and young centre-back Aaron Bouwman both expected to be unavailable. However, Ajax have coped well in their absence, with the central defensive partnership of Youri Baas and Thilo Kehrer helping to steady the back line while also contributing at the other end of the pitch, with both finding the net in Saturday’s thumping of Fortuna Sittard.
One of the biggest positives for the hosts is the form of Davy Klaassen. The 33-year-old midfielder has enjoyed an excellent start to the campaign with four goals in the five games, and was once again on target in Saturday’s win at Fortuna.
WILLEM II
Scoring 19 goals last season, Devin Haen has continued to be the Tilburgers’ standout performer this season, with three goals in five starts. The 22-year-old, in his second season with the club, was on target last week netting a late equaliser with 10 minutes remaining against then league-leaders AZ Alkmaar, to earn his side a hard-fought away point.
Although that result delivered only Willem II’s second point of the campaign, the determination and resilience shown at the AFAS Stadion should provide a welcome confidence boost ahead of this difficult trip. Alongside ADO Den Haag, John Stegemen’s men remain one of only two Eredivisie sides yet to record a league victory this season. If they are to end that wait against Ajax, significant improvement is required in the final third. Willem II have managed just five league goals so far, the joint-lowest tally in the division alongside Telstar.
What will not help their cause is the several injury concerns at the moment. Jari Schuurman (back), Anass Zarrouk (surgery) and Amine Lackhar (groin) remain unavailable, while Thomas Didillon and Justin Hoogma continue their recoveries from hamstring and knee injuries respectively. Elsewhere, deadline-day arrival Vito van Crooy has yet to regain full fitness.
ANALYSIS
Ajax’s can’t be satisfied with their home form, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game at the Johan Cruijff ArenA, figures that, if they continue, will fall short of the standards expected from a side with title ambitions.
Despite the underwhelming home record by their standards, Ajax remain strong favourites for this clash. The gulf in quality between these sides is difficult to ignore and Willem II’s away form has been nothing short of disastrous. The visitors have collected just one point from four away fixtures and are conceding close to three goals per game on their travels. Their recent LLDLD sequence also reflects a side struggling for confidence, whereas Ajax’s WDWLW run suggests they are still capable of delivering results when required.
I am not one looking at head-to-head but I fully understand that you may be so… recent meetings between the two, as you’d imagine, have been largely dominated by the Amsterdam side. Since 2018, the clubs have faced each other nine times in league games, producing 25 goals at an average of 2.78 per game. Interestingly, the majority of those goals have arrived after the interval, with 13 scored in the second half, averaging 1.44 goals per match.
The fixtures have also generated plenty of attacking intent, with 63 shots on target recorded across the nine encounters, seven per game on average. Ajax have been responsible for the vast majority of that threat, registering 48 efforts on target. Overall, recent history points towards Ajax controlling proceedings, creating the lion’s share of chances and regularly finding the breakthrough against the Tricolores.
Back to current day, Michel’s men have shown their defensive frailties, and the numbers point towards an entertaining contest with goals at both ends, but one that ultimately favours the home side. I see a 3-1 or 4-1 victory to Ajax with the attacking quality proving decisive despite conceding a consolation goal.
PREDICTION
Ajax should have too much, but after only kept one clean sheet in the last nine, I see them conceding. Also Davy Klaassen is my pick to continue this scoring form.
If you joining me with this selections, good luck.
⚽️ BET 1: Ajax win/Both Teams to Score 💷 1pt Best Odds: 2.20 at Paddy Power/Sky Bet ⚽️ BET 2: Davy Klaassen to score Best Odds: 2.75 at Bet365
I caught a bit of the Twente game the other night and I had no idea how they only won 1-0 at home to SC Telstar. Twenty-two shots, eight of them on target, only one goal. Telstar hardly laid a glove on them and John van den Brom’s boys were out for blood… but only got a drop. On Saturday, they play ADO Den Haag, again at home and the week after they host PSV. They are in very good fifth position currently with ten points and will obviously want another win here, before the champions roll into town.
Having scored 10 goals and conceded five across their opening five league matches, Twente head into this fixture in strong form. ADO, meanwhile, find themselves in a very different situation. Sitting 17th in the table, they have collected just one point from their first five games. Their defensive struggles are reflected in the 14 goals conceded, while they have managed only six at the other end.
Their opening 2-0 defeat away at AZ was hardly a cause for concern, but the subsequent 4-1 home loss to Groningen raised alarm bells. That was followed by a 3-1 defeat at Go Ahead Eagles before they earned a commendable 2-2 draw at De Kuip, a venue where they have a habit of producing surprising results against Feyenoord.
Last weekend, ADO suffered a narrow 3-2 defeat to Fortuna Sittard, one of the early surprise packages of the campaign. Despite their poor results, I can see ADO finding the net here. They have scored in every match since drawing a blank against AZ and have netted twice in each of their last two outings.
With points desperately needed, I would not completely rule out an upset either. Twente recorded their first clean sheet of the season in Wednesday’s dominant victory over Telstar, but ADO’s attacking threat and sense of urgency could make them awkward opponents. A draw would certainly not surprise, then again, nothing in the league does. Hold on, didn’t a goalkeeper score two goals last weekend?
Both Teams to Score and Over 3.5 Goals pay £23.50 off £10.
GO AHEAD EAGLES VS. FC GRONINGEN
Three bets in this one as it’s a game I really like. First up, goals again on the cards here. The hosts have saw some goals at both ends in the first five games of the campaign. They won their opening contest 4-1 at home to Willem II, then drew at De Kuip (sound familiar?) by 2-2. Then a 3-1 win at home to ADO Den Haag, then thumped 5-2 by AZ at the AFAS Stadion before last weekend’s six goal thriller, a 3-3 away in Utrecht, a match that lasted many days due to crowd issues last Saturday.
Sitting seventh in the table with eight points, they have been involved in plenty of action at both ends of the pitch, scoring 14 goals and conceding 12 in their opening five matches. Their opponents on Saturday evening, FC Groningen, have posted similar numbers, finding the net 11 times while also shipping 12 goals. They currently sit 10th with seven points.
Dick Lukkien’s side shared a 2-2 draw with FC Twente last weekend, having suffered a 3-2 home defeat to Fortuna Sittard the week before. Prior to that, they were thrashed 5-1 by PSV at the Philips Stadion, although they had handed out a heavy defeat of their own a week earlier with a convincing 4-1 win away in Den Haag.
They also began the campaign with a 2-1 home victory over Utrecht, meaning their record after five matches stands at two wins, one draw and two defeats. Overall, it has been a respectable start to the season and their scoring goals, but their goalkeeper Etienne Vaessen has been busy picking the ball out of his net far too much. It’s a big price of 3.80 at Betfair for Over 4.5 Goals for these two sides who have hit it six times in the 10 combined games in the season thus far.
Another factor to consider is that neither side looks particularly likely to keep a clean sheet. Both teams have been vulnerable defensively throughout the season, which makes goals at both ends a strong possibility. I also took a look at the corner markets, and both teams to record at least four corners appeals. Go Ahead Eagles have won four or more corners in every league match this season, reaching five or more in four of those five games. They have also allowed five or more corners to their opponents in three of those fixtures.
Groningen’s numbers are similarly encouraging. They have earned at least four corners in four of their five matches, with the only exception coming in the 4-1 victory over ADO Den Haag. They have generally been solid in limiting opposition corner counts as well, only conceding five or more twice all season: nine against PSV and five against ADO. The Builder with BTTS and Both Teams Four or More Corners is 2.90 at Bet365.
Finally, one player I overlooked last weekend, and I shouldn’t have, is Go Ahead Eagles right-winger Soren Tengstedt. The Dane has scored four goals in his last five appearances and looks well placed to add to that tally in what could be another high-scoring contest.
What stands out is his efficiency. Tengstedt has registered just five shots on target across those five matches, yet four of them have ended up in the back of the net. Although he does take an average 2.37 shots per 90 so far this season and with his confidence high, the opportuities are likely to come in a game that promises chances at both ends, he is an attractive price. Sky Bet are offering 3.50 for Tengstedt to score anytime, and I’m not making the same mistake again this weekend.
⚽️ FC TWENTE VS. ADO DEN HAAG Both Teams to Score/Over 3.5 Goals 💷 1pt Best Odds: 2.35 at Sky Bet ⚽️ GO AHEAD EAGLES VS. FC GRONINGEN Over 4.5 Goals 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.80 at Betfair
⚽️ GO AHEAD EAGLES VS. FC GRONINGEN Both Teams to Score & Both Teams 4 or more corners 💷 1pt Best Odds: 2.90 at Bet365 ⚽️Soren Tengstedt to score (Go Ahead) 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.50 at Sky Bet
Just a quick article to cover two more Eerste Divisie goalscorers who fit the criteria for Saturday and Sunday in this weekend’s Dutch Double.
I like the profiles of Naoufal Bannis for Vitesse Arnhem and Henk Veerman for FC Volendam. First up, Vitesse travel to Roda JC on Saturday afternoon, with Bannis looking set to lead the line once again after finding the net in last week’s Friday Night Goalscorer Treble.
The Moroccan striker has enjoyed a staggering start to the campaign, scoring six goals in just five league outings. Across those starts, he has registered 14 shots on target, averaging 2.80 SOT per 90 minutes, which emphasises his goal scoring consistency. If you prefer to avoid the double, Bannis is available at 2.62 with BetMGM in the anytime goal scorer market.
Meanwhile, 35-year-old Henk Veerman is no stranger to this division or to finding the back of the net. In fact, his current form surpasses that of Bannis, with seven goals in five league outings, including a four-goal haul against FC Dordrecht on 28th August. A proven performer at this level, Veerman has scored 78 goals in 125 Eerste Divisie appearances during his career.
He is a much shorter price at 1.70 with both BetMGM and Betfred and, as regular readers will know, we do not back odds-on selections here. Instead, Veerman joins Bannis as the second leg of this weekend’s Dutch Double.
⚽️ THE DUTCH DOUBLE Naoufal Bannis (Vitesse) to score Henk Veerman (FC Volendam) to score 💷 1pt Best Odds: 4.45 at BetMGM
A bumper issue this Friday night for the Dutch First Division and I have a total of SEVEN bets for you. A treble, two six-timers and four singles all at incredibly good odds. No low priced bullshit here. Let’s GO!
GOALSCORER TREBLE
Over the years, I’ve found it profitable to combine three of the most in‑form strikers into a treble — provided the odds make sense.
Ferdy Druijf of Almere City let us down for the big winning treble last week missing a penalty. However, I’m sticking with him and Tristan Van Glist of Heracles Almelo. Druijf has notched five in five and Van Glist has got six in five, plus they are both on penalty kicks, unless Ferdy has been took off them by the gaffer.
Third is Jong PSV’s 18-year-old American striker Austyn Jones. I was so close to adding him in different bet last week at a cracking 2.88 price… and I didn’t… and he scored. I follow PSV very closely with having family in Eindhoven and Mr. Jones is a lad I had spotted for a while especially last year, when he scored nine goals in just eight games at Under-19 level.
He made his debut for Jong PSV at just 17, scoring four goals in 17 appearances, mostly those coming off the bench. In April last year, he broke through with three goals in two starts and over the last two matches, he’s taken on a leading role, starting as the number nine and scoring in both, after previously coming off the bench against RKC Waalwijk, where he also found the net. He rounds this week’s Goalscorer Treble.
MORE GOALS, GOALS, GOALS
We fell just one short on the Over 2.5 and two off the Over 3.5 accas last Friday, argh. With more games tonight (and a couple I’m avoiding), I’ve stuck with six again. Same plan as before: two accumulators, one for Over 2.5 Goals and one for Over 3.5 across all fixtures, because they land more often than the odds suggest.
Last week’s seven matches all produced at least three goals, and only two missed the four‑goal line. In Week 2, six games were played and only one finished under two goals. Tonight, the Over 2.5 acca pays £74.70 from a tenner, while the Over 3.5 returns £266 from £5.
I’ve put one point on the three‑plus‑goals acca and half a point on the four‑plus‑goals version. Hopefully we start hitting these consistently over the coming months.
Jong Ajax vs. RKC Waalwijk
FC Eindhoven vs. FC Dordrecht
FC Emmen vs. De Graafschap
Heracles Almelo vs. Jong AZ
NAC Breda vs. Jong FC Utrecht
VVV-Venlo vs. TOP Oss
FC EMMEN VS. DE GRAAFSCHAP
Freddy Quispel has quietly become one of the standout performers of the season. The FC Emmen forward has already scored six goals in five games, a huge jump from last year’s four in 27 and just one in 22 the season before. He’s hit a real purple patch, and against De Graafschap his to score anytime price looks far too big.
At 3.30 with BetMGM, the value is excellent. De Graafschap have been leaking goals at an alarming rate: five against Heracles, four to Almere City, two to VVV Venlo, and five at home to Jong AZ. They are haemorrhaging goals, and with Quispel in this kind of form, I can’t not put a point on here at least.
HERACLES ALMELO VS. JONG AZ ALKMAAR
That man again. Jean-Paul N’Djoli of Heracles got a hat-trick last week against De Graafschap. N’Djoli has scored NINE goals in the first five games of the season. He has scored at least two goals in FOUR games now.
BetMGM have at 12.00 for a hat-trick again this week which is worth half a point, and I’m sticking at point on him to score two at 4.50.
JONG AJAX VS. RKC WAALWIJK
And one last one and we should have been on him for a while but strangely his price is still standing up. Emre Unuvar is yet another guy that’s scored five goals in six games, and there’s another too. More on him in a moment. But Unuvar is priced up at 3.40 again at BetMGM, against a RKC Waalwijk side that has yet to keep a clean sheet this season and conceded two in three of the five games. He’s an official selection.
Another guy that you might want to keep an eye on is Diego Pugno. The 20-year-old Italian striker signed on loan from Juventus in the summer and has scored four goals in six games and has picked up three yellow cards so far – but we can’t bet on them. A goal for him is priced at 2.88. A decent price but I opted for the higher priced Unuvar for our official selection here.
That rounds out all the bets for a big Friday. Good luck!
⚽️ GOALSCORER TREBLE Ferdy Druijf (Almere City) Tristan Van Glist (Heracles) Austyn Jones (Jong PSV) 💷 1pt Best Odds: 12.00 at BetMGM (Boosted) ⚽️ OVER 2.5 GOALS ACCA 💷 1pt Best Odds: 7.47 at Bet365 ⚽️ OVER 3.5 GOALS ACCA 💷 0.5pt Best Odds: 53.36 at Bet365
⚽️ Freddy Quispel to score (FC Emmen) 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.30 at BetMGM
⚽️Emre Unuvar to score (Jong Ajax) 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.40 at BetMGM
⚽️Jean-Paul N’Djoli to score 2 or more goals (Heracles) 💷 0.75pt Best Odds: 4.50 at BetMGM
⚽️Jean-Paul N’Djoli to score 3 or more goals (Heracles) 💷 0.5pt Best Odds: 13.00 at BetMGM
Since the Champions League evolved from the European Cup in 1992, PSV have reached the competition for a 20th time, setting a new record for a Dutch club and moving clear of Ajax, who have qualified on 19 occasions. PSV begin their latest European campaign with a clash against Shakhtar Donetsk, and Will Burns believes the Dutch champions should have too much quality for their Ukrainian opponents on Thursday night.
PSV
PSV have bounced back in style after faltering in the Johan Cruyff Schaal (4-0 to AZ) and the opening day of the Eredivisie (2-2 at home to Fortuna Sittard) to win four games in a row, but they have failed to keep a clean sheet. They beat Excelsior away 2-1, Groningen at home 5-1, then 6-1 away in Utrecht and last week beating Ajax at the Johan Cruyff Arena 3-1 in a controversial match.
In Amsterdam, Peter Bosz adopted a more pragmatic approach. His side held just 48% of possession, and both them and Ajax hit five shots on target. After the match, Bosz praised his team’s clinical finishing and the composed, mature manner in which they controlled the second half.
PSV will be without several key players for this clash. The man who Carlo Ancelotti has just called up to the Brazil squad, Mauro Júnior is suspended, while Kiliann Sildillia and Jerdy Schouten remain sidelined through injury. Alassane Pléa, and new signings Sam Lammers and Sami Ouaissa have yet to regain full fitness, while another newcomer Mikkel Bro Hansen was left out of the squad. There is better news regarding Dennis Man, who is in line to return provided he completes Wednesday’s training session without any setbacks.
SHAKHTAR
After impressively reaching the Conference League semi-finals last season, Shakhtar return to the Champions League and renew acquaintances with PSV, a side they faced during the 2024/25 campaign. Their previous meeting produced one of the most dramatic turnarounds of the competition’s history. Shakhtar stormed into a 2-0 half-time lead at the Philips Stadion in November 2024 and looked on course for a famous victory, only for an incredibly late collapse of extraordinary fashion. PSV staged a remarkable comeback, striking in the 87th, 90th and 95th minute to snatch a 3-2 win.
Arda Turan’s men arrived in Maastricht on Monday and will stay there until Thursday. After departing Lviv by bus in the morning, the team crossed the Ukrainian-Polish border before continuing to Rzeszów, where they boarded a charter flight to Maastricht Airport. Wednesday’s schedule saw an open training session in front of the press.
On paper, Shakhtar may not attract the same attention as some of the competitions’ bigger names, but the Ukrainian champions have made a strong start to the campaign. They travelled to the Netherlands in confidence, sitting second in the Ukrainian Premier League after five games, joint on 12 points with Polissya Zhytomyr, whom they lost to, 2-0 at the end of August. They opened the season with three straight wins with Brazilian forward Kaua Elias, the standout performer in the opening match, hitting a hat-trick in the 5-1 win at home to FC Kudrivka. They have scored ten goals across the five games and conceded four so far in the league.
Their momentum was briefly halted by the defeat to Polissia, but it prompted a candid response from Turan. The former Turkish international openly criticised his side’s lack of aggression in challenges and the tempo of their build-up play, while also accepting responsibility for the disappointing performance.
However, Shakhtar responded positively at the weekend. After conceding an early goal against Karpaty Lviv, they rallied to secure a 2-1 victory. Luca Meirelles restored parity before Alisson capitalised on a turnover in possession, racing through on goal and calmly finishing the winner. That strike could be particularly significant ahead of the trip to Eindhoven. With PSV often committing numbers forward and defending high up the pitch, turnovers can quickly create opportunities for quick, direct attackers.
Alisson, in particular, is a player to watch. The Brazilian winger has enjoyed an outstanding start to the season, earning the club’s Player of the Month award for August and once again proving decisive in Shakhtar’s latest victory.
They are slightly weakened through injuries to Brazilian pair, attacking midfielder Pedrinho (hamstring) and central defender Marlon Santos (muscle injury since May last year). Both have been added to the Champions League squad, but are set to miss out this game.
ANALYSIS
PSV will be eager to make a fast start and strike first in Eindhoven. An early goal would immediately put the Dutch champions in control and force Shakhtar to abandon a more cautious approach. The last thing Peter Bosz’s side wants is to fall behind and allow the visitors to sit deep, defend in numbers and look to exploit counter-attacking opportunities. Should PSV grab the opener, the game is likely to become more open, creating the kind of space their attacking players have thrived in over recent weeks. If the deadlock remains intact for an extended period, or if Shakhtar take the lead, memories of previous frustrating encounters could quickly resurface.
That balance is what makes this contest so intriguing. PSV undoubtedly possess greater attacking quality and arrive in excellent form, but Shakhtar are far from a side travelling to Eindhoven simply to limit the damage. Like we mentioned earlier, confidence will be high for Shakhtar, who come into the match after winning four of their opening five league fixtures, and they have enough quality to pose a genuine threat.
The Ukrainains have conceded in three of the five games this season, and the statistics strongly point towards an entertaining, high-scoring contest in Eindhoven. As we well know, PSV games are virtually always reliable for goals, with both teams finding the net in 19 of their last 21 competitive fixtures, while only one of their previous 32 matches across all competitions has produced fewer than three goals. Bosz’s side play an aggressive, attack-minded style that creates chances at both ends of the pitch.
Shakhtar, meanwhile, have shown they can remain competitive even when beaten, with five of their last seven defeats coming by just a single-goal margin. Their European fixtures also tend to deliver goals, with nine of the club’s last 12 continental matches featuring over 2.5 goals. With PSV’s free-scoring attack and Shakhtar’s ability to threaten on the counter, all the signs point towards another game containing multiple goals.
PREDICTION
Goals, goals, goals. With home advantage and the better squad, PSV should find a win here but they always concede so they’ll have to find at least two. PSV to win with Both Teams to Score is 2.63 at Paddy Power for our first selection.
Obviously you cannot ignore the Both Teams to Score and I think we will have a little go at a Bet Ladder too, laddering the amount of goals in this one. We will start the line at Over 3.5 Goals with 1 unit and ladder up to Over 6.5 Goals. If we get a 5-2 or a 4-3, we’re a winner of the all the rungs. A total of 2.5 units risked on this one.
⚽️ BET 1: PSV win/Both Teams to Score 💷 1pt Best Odds: 2.63 at Paddy Power ⚽️ BET LADDER 🪜Over 3.5 Goals 💷 1pt Best Odds: 2.20 at Paddy Power 🪜Over 4.5 Goals 💷 0.75pt Best Odds: 3.75 at Sky Bet 🪜Over 5.5 Goals 💷 0.50pt Best Odds: 7.00 at Paddy Power/Sky Bet 🪜Over 6.5 Goals 💷 0.25pt Best Odds: 13.00 at Sky Bet Risking 2.50pts in total
If you joining me with these selections, good luck.
It’s a tremendously difficult start to the Champions League campaign for Feyenoord as they head to the Nou Camp to face FC Barcelona on Matchday One. With most games starring the world’s elite, it’s hard to find any value, but Will Burns is putting his faith in one man to give us a chance at some profit by full-time.
FC BARCELONA
Barcelona’s impressive start to the season has only heightened expectations ahead of this match with Feyenoord. Hansi Flick’s side have scored a massive 17 goals in just four matches, kept three clean sheets and conceded only twice, underlining the momentum they carry into Europe. Two of those sides were Valencia (5-0) and Athletic Bilbao (2-0) – both arguably as good as the Rotterdammers.
With two attack-minded teams set to meet, the stage is perfectly set for an entertaining night and the hosts will be looking to make a statement. The Champions League remains their ultimate objective. Despite consistently competing among Europe’s elite, the Catalans have endured years of disappointment in the competition. This season feels different.
Following a productive summer and an excellent start under Flick, there is growing belief that Barcelona have the quality and balance needed to compete for the biggest prize. The team’s defensive structure appears far more reliable than in previous campaigns, while the midfield has offered both control and stability.
Up front, Barcelona’s attacking unit has been ruthless, scoring freely despite operating without a traditional number nine. Anthony Gordon, is already a firm fan favourite with the fans, with four assists in four games, but the Scouser is still seeking his first goal in a Barcelona shirt. He netted an impressive ten times in last season’s competition, more than Lamine Yamal. Operating as Barcelona’s auxiliary striker, Raphinha has adapted seamlessly to his new responsibilities. The 29-year-old has been one of the team’s standouts so far this season, contributing six goals and an assist across four La Liga games.
They will be without first choice right-back Eric Garcia due to suspension carried over from last season and his absence leaves Flick with Jules Kounde as the most natural replacement. However, the Frenchman has produced mixed performances whenever deployed this season, however, his attacking contribution and link-up play with Yamal are seen as valuable assets, but his defensive lapses and occasional concentration issues raises concerns.
That could open the door for João Cancelo to feature on the right side of defence. With Xavi Espart impressing at left-back, Cancelo offers an experienced and attack-minded alternative who could suit Barcelona’s approach against Giovanni van Bronckhorst’s men. Another possibility would be to hand Alejandro Balde his first start of the campaign at left-back, allowing Espart or Kounde to switch across to the opposite flank. Flick has many options at his disposal.
FEYENOORD
Gio van Bronckhorst’s side earned their route into the tournament by finishing second to PSV last season, but this competition is something else for them. Drawn alongside Inter Milan, FC Porto and Galatasaray, they face a demanding league stage challenge, and the trip to the Nou Camp presents obviously the most difficult test, although it is far from impossible. Feyenoord will need to remain organised and defensively disciplined to frustrate Barcelona’s potent attack and that will be their best hope.
Although they lost their top scorer Ayase Ueda for Lille on deadline day, they have enjoyed a solid beginning to the Eredivisie campaign, winning three and two draws, scoring 13 goals in the process. However, defensive vulnerabilities remain evident, with just one clean sheet recorded so far. The Ueda loss forced them to reshape their frontline with Nacho Ferri. The summer signing from Westerlo, was handed his first start against NEC and made an immediate impact, providing an assist and offering an encouraging glimpse of what he could bring to the team.
History does not offer the Rotterdammers much encouragement heading into their trip to Catalonia. The two sides have met only once before in European competition, with Barca drawing 0-0 in Rotterdam before securing a 3-0 victory in the second leg. What’s even more unnerving for the visitors is Barcelona’s formidable record against Dutch opposition at home, having never lost to a club from the Netherlands at the Nou Camp, recording six wins and three draws.
Yet, Feyenoord arrive in Spain with reasons for optimism of their own. While the Rotterdam club has dropped points at home against Go Ahead Eagles and ADO Den Haag, they have been flawless on the road in the Eredivisie, winning all three away fixtures.
ANALYSIS
That NEC victory I mentioned above, provided great evidence that Feyenoord can adapt their approach when required. Despite seeing just 38% possession, they were the more dangerous side, registering six shots on target compared to NEC’s two. The highly creative and dangeorus Gjivai Zechiël continued his impressive start to the campaign by scoring his fourth league goal before setting up strikes for Luciano Valente and debutant Jerayno Schaken.
That performance could serve as the blueprint against Barcelona. Feyenoord will not dominate possession at the Nou Camp, and making a compact defensive structure and quick transitions on the counter a far more realistic route to success. If they can absorb Barcelona’s early pressure and break forward efficiently, they might be able to trouble the hosts. Might.
PREDICTION
Trying to find value in this market felt like searching for a needle in a haystack, but one selection eventually caught my eye.
One thing I noticed was involved the young Dutch midfielder Gjivai Zechiël. Feyenoord’s 22-year-old academy graduate has enjoyed a superb start to the season, contributing four goals and three assists in his first five appearances. What stands out even more is his willingness to shoot from distance.
Zechiël has attempted seven shots from outside the box so far this campaign, scoring once and testing the goalkeeper with three others. That means four of his seven long-range efforts have hit the target, giving him an impressive 57% accuracy rate.
Flick’s side have shown a willingness to concede long-range shooting opportunities so far this season. Rayo Vallecano attempted four shots from outside the box, with one finding the target in Barça’s 5-2 victory. Athletic Bilbao managed two efforts from distance but failed to test the goalkeeper in a 2-0 Barcelona win, while Elche registered two long-range attempts, none of which were on target, during Barça’s 5-0 opening-day triumph.
Given that trend, there could be value in the 5.50 offered by Bet365 for Zechiël to register a shot on target from outside the penalty area.
⚽️ Gjivai Zechiël to have a shot on target outside the box 💷 0.75pt Best Odds: 5.50 at Bet365
If you joining me with these selections, good luck.
We have midweek Eredivisie action this week as NEC face Excelsior on Tuesday and FC Twente host Telstar on Wednesday. These matches were rearranged from Matchday Three as both NEC and Twente were given the week off to qualify for Europe.
Meanwhile, first up, Tuesday early evening, NEC and Excelsior are searching for consistency after mixed starts to the season; NEC hope to feed off the home crowd, while Excelsior remain dangerous on the counterattack. Will Burns thinks goals is the best way to play this one.
NEC
Dick Schreuder’s NEC have always been entertaining and this season has proved no different. Finishing third last season, meant they had a chance to qualify for the Champions League in early August. They impressively dispatched Olympiakos over two legs before falling to Bodo/Glimt by an aggregate of 6-1. NEC’s keeper Gonzalo Crettaz was sent off inside three minutes of the second leg in Norway, and the Nijmegen side never recovered. They have dropped into the Europa League and have a visit to Juventus to look forward to their opening game later this month.
In between the European adventure, they sit in 10th in the Eredivisie on six points after losing both home games, and winning both their away and the goals have been raining in. Opening day, lost 2-1 at home to Telstar, then defeated Willem II 4-1 in Tilburg, followed up by beating PEC Zwolle 3-1 and then returning home last weekend to lose 3-1 to Feyenoord. A total of nine goals scored while letting seven in.
Kaj Sierhuis leads the line with two goals, operating mainly as a penalty‑box finisher. Bryan Linssen, now aged 35, adds another scoring option, while 37-year-old Dusan Tadic and 38-year-old Tjarron Chery provides creativity from midfield. Jamiro Monteiro anchors the centre of the pitch, tasked with slowing Excelsior’s transitions.
After Saturday’s defeat, NEC need a reset. It’s a chance to steady themselves in front of their own supporters, but the task is obvious: defend better and stop Excelsior from breaking in transition. That’s easier said than done. One of NEC’s most reliable defenders, Deveron Fonville, is sidelined, and his usual partner Philippe Sandler remains doubtful after missing five straight matches.
In recent games, NEC have relied on 36‑year‑old Bram Nuytinck, who made only seven league appearances last season, alongside 20‑year‑old Almugera Kabar. The summer signing from Borussia Dortmund is still adjusting to Eredivisie tempo — he hasn’t completed a full match yet, logging 15, 8, 45, 45 and 72 minutes across his last five outings. He started all of the last three but was substituted in each of them, highlighting NEC’s ongoing instability at centre‑back.
And against a free scoring Excelsior side… that could be a major problem.
EXCELSIOR
Excelsior arrive in significantly better form and sit fifth in the Eredivisie. They’ve been scoring freely and defending with real structure, netting ten goals and conceding only three across their first four matches. Their wins have been emphatic, 4–0 against Cambuur, 2–1 over Sparta, and 3–0 away at Willem II with only PSV managing to stop them, winning 2–1 in a match where, as expected, the champions controlled empathically.
Georgian midfielder Irakli Yegoian has been quite the revelation this season, scoring twice and three assists in the opening four games. The 22-year-old striker, David Garden, a summer signing from Quick Boys of the Tweede Divisie, has scored two goals, and looks set the lead the line in Nijmegen. The pace of Aymen Sliti down the right flank is exciting for the viewers and frightening for full-backs, while Icelandic winger Agust Thorsteinsson will be on the left. He signed from Breidablik midway through last month. Another summer signing, Iranian international Alireza Jahanbakhsh could feature against his old club, if he is fit after missing the game at the weekend due to injury.
Excelsior’s biggest strength is their efficiency: fewer chances, more goals, and a defensive unit that bends but rarely breaks.
ANALYSIS
Looking at the head-to-head results across the past five seasons, the two sides have met six times. Dick Schreuder’s team came out on top in four of those encounters, while Ruben den Uil’s side managed just one victory, with one match ending in a draw. Those fixtures produced a total of 22 goals, which is an average of 3.67 goals per game and the second half proved to be the most productive period. Sixteen of the 22 goals scored after the interval, working out to an average of 2.67 second‑half goals per match, highlighting how often these contests open up as the game progresses. In total, the teams generated 45 shots on target, averaging 7.5 per match. NEC were responsible for the majority of those efforts, recording 25 shots on goal.
If you look at the last five league matches of both clubs, Excelsior is doing better on paper. The Rotterdam outfit has won four games and lost one, while NEC has won three times and lost twice.
PREDICTION
I truly think Excelsior could get the job done here with Irakli Yegoian playing a big role again. The Georgian to score or assist is a big 3.30 at BetMGM and he managed both at the weekend against Willem II.
Excelsior are more than capable of scoring two and I’ve added that as part a builder at BetMGM. NEC have conceded at least two goals to Telstar, Bodo/Glimt twice and Feyenoord already this season, the missing first-team defenders, the inexperience at the back make this look more likely for me. NEC has scored at least one goals in five or the last six games, Excelsior has conceded goals to Sparta and PSV so far so Both Teams to Score seems probable too.
⚽️ BET 1: Both Teams to Score 2 or More Goals 💷 0.75pt Best Odds: 3.50 at Paddy Power ⚽️ BET 2: Irakli Yegoian to score or assist 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.30 at BetMGM ⚽️ BET BUILDER Excelsior to score two or more goals Both Teams to Score Irakli Yegoian to score or assist Irakli Yegoian to have a shot on target 💷 0.75pt Best Odds: 5.60 at BetMGM
We came so close nailing all four bets on Friday night in the Eerste Divisie and Monday night sees two more games, but I want to focus on FC Eindhoven’s trips to Utrecht for our next selection. Let’s get it.
PREVIEW
FC EINDHOVEN head into their clash with Jong FC Utrecht looking to bounce back from last weekend’s 3-1 home defeat to Heracles Almelo. Despite showing resilience at the Jan Louwers Stadium, the Blue and Whites were undone in the second half by the unbeaten visitors. This was their third defeat in a row but Manager Jan Poortvliet will hope that his Deadline Day reinforcements can inject fresh energy into his squad.
Danish attacking midfielder Lasse Abildgaard joined on loan from Willem II for the remainder of the season, while Rayan Buifrahi, a 21‑year‑old Moroccan‑Belgian winger, arrived on a free from Club Brugge. Both players are expected to bring pace and creativity to Eindhoven’s attack, although their history suggest they remain talents with something to prove.
Abildgaard began his career at Silkeborg in his homeland before being snapped up by Ajax at just 16. He made five appearances for Jong Ajax, scoring once, before moving to Willem II in January, where he featured four times as a substitute. Buifrahi, meanwhile, spent two seasons at MVV Maastricht before heading to Brugge, playing 59 matches and contributing just three goals and five assists. While neither player arrives with an exciting résumé, they will be eager to seize this new opportunity and establish themselves as key figures in Eindhoven’s push for consistency this season.
Eindhoven began the season positively with a late 1–0 win at Jong AZ, courtesy of Owen Renfrum’s header, but have since struggled to maintain consistency losing their next three. However, a 3-2 loss to MVV (2nd place currently), a 5-2 defeat away to Den Bosch (15th) and last weeks’ 3-1 home loss to table toppers Heracles, shows a side who have scored three goals against the top two teams in the division. Their opponents tonight, are neither of those sides.
With new signings in place and a point to prove, FC Eindhoven will aim to rediscover their winning form against JONG FC UTRECHT and I think they can. Utrecht’s young side come into the game in dreadful form, losing all five of their opening matches and sit bottom of the Keuken Kampioen Divisie. Although their schedule included MVV and Heracles too.
Their campaign began with a narrow 2–1 defeat away to MVV Maastricht, followed by a 3–1 home loss to Vitesse. Then a heavy 6–1 defeat against Heracles in Utrecht marked their lowest point so far. A 2–1 loss at TOP Oss came next, and last week Jong AZ edged them out with another tight 2–1 score line.
SELECTION
I think the hosts will win here as they do have the superior side and they have been finding the net, however, I’m unsure they can keep a clean sheet. In all five games for Jong Utrecht, both teams have found the net with at least three goals so if I feel Eindhoven can grab the win, I think there’s a chance we see goals at both ends. Eindhoven’s only win was in their opening game, the 1-0 win against Jong AZ, after that the goals have flew in, scoring five and conceding 11.
It’s early days in this league still but goals have been consistent throughout the league, throughout the country in fact.
⚽️ FC Eindhoven win/Over 2.5 Goals 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.50 at Bet365
Sunday brings a heavy dose of the Eredivisie’s underbelly, with four fixtures on the schedule. For today’s Dutch Double, Will Burns zeroes in on two of games, clashes featuring four sides eager to break into the space usually dominated by the Big Three, including one club with genuine championship ambitions.
FC Groningen host FC Twente in an intriguing Eredivisie showdown where both teams have something to prove. Groningen play exciting football but leak goals, while Twente are known for their possession and organisation. Even at this early stage, both coaches will be under pressure.
Groningen generate plenty of danger, they are averaging 14 big chances per match, but also fail to convert 11 of those. Their tendency to surrender early leads makes Twente to lead at half‑time is appealing. Dick Lukkien’s side are vulnerable in transition, a recurring problem that continues to cost them against organised opponents. That fragility was exposed in back‑to‑back defeats: a 3–2 loss at home to Fortuna Sittard last weekend and a heavy 5–1 beating away at PSV in the Philips Stadion the week previous. Those results abruptly halted what had been a perfect start to the campaign, with two wins from two — a 2–1 victory over Utrecht at the Euroborg and a convincing 4–1 win away at ADO.
Twente’s defensive structure is far more stable. They have allowed only 14 shots inside their own box across three matches, a sign of strong organisation and disciplined positioning. Their dominance in possession and frequent use of the flanks also means they win a lot of corners. They often they force opponents back and create repeated wide overloads, this could open Groningen up time and time again. Lukkien beware!!
However, in what seems to be a regular occurrence in the league, both sides have shown quality up top, and weaknesses at the back. Both Teams to Score in all four Groningen’s league games so far, for Twente, they played three league games without a clean sheet: 1-0 loss to Heerenveen, 3-1 win at home to PEC Zwolle and 4-1 win away to Cambuur. The season was interrupted by a European qualifying where a total of 9 goals were conceded in six games but they scored 11 times. BTTS should land here but I give the advantage to John van den Brom’s Twente when it comes to the final result.
Twente look like they’re beginning to find rhythm just as Groningen appear to be moving in the opposite direction. Fortuna Sittard, this season’s surprise package, exposed Groningen’s transition issues by hitting Lukkien’s side three times on the counter last weekend. Twente have the tools to do exactly the same. With pace on both wings and in midfield, and Wout Weghorst acting as a powerful focal point who can hold the ball and bring others into play, the likes of Younes Taha, Marko Pjaca and Sondre Ørjasaeter are well‑placed to exploit the spaces Groningen leave behind. It wouldn’t surprised me if any of those four ended up on the scoresheet.
The table-topping AZ Alkmaar head to the Abe Lenstra Stadium with a perfect four wins out of four with thirteen goals scored and only three conceded. Leeroy Echteld has shaped AZ into genuine title contenders since becoming permanent head coach in April, he led them to their KNVB Beker triumph over NEC Nijmegen and the emphatic 4–0 victory over ten‑man PSV in the Johan Cruyff Schaal. SC Heerenveen approach the match from a very different position. Robin Veldman’s side have struggled for consistency after a mixed start, and three injuries in defence make selection even more complicated. Facing this high‑flying AZ team is a serious early‑season examination.
Heerenveen opened the campaign impressively with a 1–0 win away at FC Twente but since then, they have slipped into a run of draws, interrupted by a 2-0 defeat at home to PEC Zwolle. Two 2–2 draws, against Ajax and Willem II, will give them confidence against AZ, but they too often fail to finish matches strongly. In attack, there are bright spots. Right-winger Jacob Trenskow has two goals and an assist in the four league matches, while on the left, Maxence Rivera provides threat with an average of 2.5 shots on target per match.
Defensively, there are concerns as they have conceded six goals in four matches, including two goals in each of the two away draws. With two regular defenders missing, the back line is particularly vulnerable, and AZ possess exactly the kind of attacking power that can exploit that. Mees Hilgers is sidelined with a knee‑ligament injury, while first choice right-back, Mats Egbring has an ankle issue, so Oliver Braude steps in at right‑back to complete a patched‑up back line.
For AZ, Echteld’s compact, attack‑minded system has delivered four straight with Mexx Meerdink finally proving he is threat up front. Their defensive structure has been just as impressive, but the only minor concern is the injury to right‑back Denso Kasius.
So with the visitors’ prolific attack and a solid defence, and combine that with Heerenveen’s injuries at the back, I see this being an away win. It will be difficult for the hosts to to match the AZ’s tempo, though Trenskow or Rivera could still produce a moment at home. Ultimately, I see AZ being victorious and claiming their fifth win, but I wouldn’t put you off backing Both Teams to Score in this one.
Heerenveen have conceded at least two goals in each of their last three matches, and in the 2–2 draw with Ajax they were already two goals down by half‑time. AZ, meanwhile, have shown a habit of striking early: they’ve scored in the first half in two of their four league games, and they also led at the break in their Johan Cruyff Schaal win over PSV. I see AZ exploding out of the blocks here and adding an AZ goal in the first half will bump up the Bet Builder below.
⚽️ DUTCH DOUBLE Groningen vs. Twente: Both Teams to Score Heerenveen vs. AZ: Both Teams to Score 💷 1pts Best Odds: 2.10 at Unibet ⚽️ BET 2: FC Twente win/Both Teams to Score 💷 1pts Best Odds: 3.50 at Sky Bet ⚽️ BET 3: BET BUILDER AZ win Over 2.5 Match Goals AZ to score in the first half 💷 1pts Best Odds: 2.74 at BetMGM
