Last season’s Eredivisie campaign saw three sides tumble into the Eerste Divisie: FC Volendam slipped out via the playoffs, while NAC Breda and Heracles Almelo were automatically relegated after finishing 17th and 18th. Heracles ended on 19 points, Breda 29, and Volendam 32. The previous year, Almere City (22), RKC Waalwijk (25), and Willem II (26) went down — showing that any team failing to reach the 30‑point mark is in danger. Will Burns takes a deep dive into who might fall under that threshold this season.

WHO’S GONNA BE RELEGATED?

I think TELSTAR will go down this season and they are priced at 3.40 with Bet365.

Why do I think this about the side in 14th last season?  Well, the club approaches the new season worryingly in full transition mode, reshaping both its technical staff and on‑field identity while bracing for a demanding fight for survival. The devastating personnel losses, especially the departure of manager Anthony Correia, now managing FC Utrecht, was a major blow, as the squad was specifically constructed to fit his unique tactical system.

Key departures have stripped away much of their stability. Guus Offerhaus, Tyrese Noslin and Danny Bakker have all moved on, and the Correia blueprint is unlikely to function as effectively under Henk Brugge’s new approach — especially given that last season’s success was widely viewed as an overachievement. They finished 14th with 37 points, pulling off shock wins over PSV home and away, but without another season of punching above their weight, their thin squad and limited quality make a drop back to the second tier a real possibility.

Financial constraints only deepen the challenge: Telstar operate on a modest budget and are routinely forced to gamble on hidden gems from amateur football or youth setups, leaving them at a clear disadvantage. Although they do have some pieces to work with. Portuguese forward Rui Mendes comes in from FC Groningen after strong experience with FC Emmen. Attacking left‑back Prince Aning, brought in from Borussia Dortmund II, looks like he could become a real breakout performer this season. There’s optimism around striker Sem van Duijn too — five goals in 14 matches last year, and he needed only 23 attempts to get them. Behind him is Milan Zonneveld, who chipped in with seven goals across 23 appearances in all competitions.

Pre‑season wasn’t kind: defeats to Almere City (2–1), Sparta Rotterdam (1–0) and Wolfsburg (3–1), with a chaotic 6–3 win over De Graafschap the lone bright spot. That run suggests defensive frailties remain, but they clearly have enough attacking threat to trouble teams. They open up their campaign with their first four away games looking tough: NEC, Ajax, Twente then AZ. With potentially zero points out of 12 from those games, they could be facing the south of the table early on, and it may be difficult to recover.

Bouncing back into the Eredivisie after a years’ absence, WILLEM II with a storyline shaped by resilience, renewed ambition, and a touch of unpredictability. It was a surprise promotion after starting last season in disastrous form but clawed their way back, ultimately earning their place through a dramatic play‑off run capped by a penalty shootout win over FC Volendam. Bet365 think this was a fluke and price them at a short 1.83.

Financially, they are in a stronger position than several fellow newcomers. Their resources give them a better chance of staying up than clubs like Cambuur, provided they invest wisely in the final stretch of the window. Not everything around the club has been smooth, though. During the play‑offs, head coach John Stegemann drew criticism for repeatedly complaining about the competition format, a stance the panel felt did little to enhance the club’s public image.

Even so, Willem II’s core identity remains intact. The team is still seen as a lively, welcoming club with an excellent stadium atmosphere — a place where supporters feel at home and where the Eredivisie feels just a bit more vibrant with their return.

It’s been three seasons since SC CAMBUUR (2.20 at Bet365) were in the Dutch top flight and I think they could be leaving again come May. They walk into the new season under heavy pressure and with a sense of vulnerability. Promotion wasn’t just a sporting goal — it was a financial necessity. Their new stadium, originally planned as a major step forward, became dramatically more expensive due to global instability, leaving the club in a difficult position where top‑flight survival is tied directly to economic stability.

Cambuur’s financial troubles have already hampered their ability to strengthen the squad — most notably, they were reportedly unable to meet the contract demands needed to keep standout performer Mark Diemers. Their promotion may have aligned perfectly with the stadium project, but sportively it came at the worst possible moment: they simply don’t have the resources to build a squad capable of competing at Eredivisie level.

On the pitch, the warning signs are even more glaring. Questions around leadership and long‑term direction persist, and it really seems to be if they did stay up it would require something bordering on a freak, against‑all‑logic escape. Although whether they have enough scoring power to give themselves a chance is highly debatable.

Three players have arrived from Ajax: 20‑year‑old striker Skye Vink and 19‑year‑old left‑back Lucas Jetten signed on permanent deals while 20‑year‑old midfielder Ryan van de Pavert on loan. Vink is viewed as a promising forward with the ambition to become a starter, though there are genuine doubts about whether he can deliver the 10–12 goals usually required to help a newly promoted side survive. Jetten, an attacking left‑back with 60 Eerste Divisie appearances for Jong Ajax, will see this move as his chance to prove himself at a higher level. Van de Pavert adds further potential in midfield, arriving as a developing central option with room to grow.

The coaching structure is identified as a potential source of unrest. Johan Plat is the head coach, but club icon Henk de Jong serves as his assistant. I think this could create a difficult environment for Plat. If the team loses a few matches, and sit drop the bottom of the league, the supporters will likely immediately begin calling for De Jong to take over, making it nearly impossible for Plat to establish his own authority.

Yet amid the pessimism, the new stadium itself as it will be a fantastic addition to the league, and that Saturday‑night home matches should still yield points thanks to the atmosphere and energy it brings. Cambuur may face one of the toughest battles in the division, but their home ground could offer just enough spark to keep the fight alive.

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Over the past three seasons, the Eredivisie Golden Boot winner has consistently hit at least 24 goals. Ayase Ueda led the way last season for Feyenoord with 25, Sem Steijn struck 24 for FC Twente the year before, and in 2023/24 Luuk de Jong and Vangelis Pavlidis shared the honour with 29 each. In short, it usually takes around 25 goals to claim the boot so here’s the contenders, who I like and who I don’t.

Thanks for reading.

WHO’S GONNA BE TOP SCORER?

AYASE UEDA is the frontrunner at the bookies (3.60 at Unibet) scoring 26 in 40 games last season, however I would be avoiding him at that short price. Not saying he can’t win the boot, but in his three seasons at Feyenoord, he scored 26 in all competitions in 40, 9 in 31 and 5 in 37 so to say he found a purple patch last time out could be an accurate statement and he might not be as prolific this season. However, hitting 25 league goals from 102 shots (4.08 shots per goal) and averaged 0.89 goals per 90 are bloody good numbers for the Japanese hitman.

PSV marksman RICARDO PEPI is only 4.00 at Bet365 and Unibet for the USA international, who did notch 16 goals last year, finishing third in the boot race. He scored those goals while just taking 61 shots – an incredible ratio averaging 1.02 goals per 90. Amazingly, the season prior he was scoring 1.45 goals per 90, so it obvious to see why he is that short. He would be my favourite for this year’s boot. He was set to move to Fulham last season, but the noise of a move out of Eindhoven has died down for now.

My pick would be TROY PARROTT (6.50 at Bet365/Unibet) but it is a big if, if he stays in the league. In all competitions, he hit 31 goals and 10 assists in 48 games for AZ last year, 20 in 47 the year before, and delivered standout performances internationally, including five goals against Portugal and Hungary in World Cup playoffs. His form has attracted major interest from Ajax, PSV and clubs abroad, underlining how lethal he has become since arriving in Holland and well capable of outscoring everyone. If he stays at AZ, he has a chance. If he is off to Ajax and PSV, I would make him favourite. Again, it’s a risk as he could be off elsewhere by September 1st.

In the same bracket as Parrott, I would be serious looking at MIKA GODTS of Ajax. Coming second in the Golden Boot last year with 17 goals, and with the squad looking stronger he could grow on that. But it looks likely he is off with PSG despite Ajax flat out rejecting the bids for the Belgian. De Telegraaf report that Ajax want at least €60 million for him, PSG apparently nowhere near that yet. He’s priced up at 25.o0 at Unibet which is an absolutely great price.

As I mentioned in the last preview here, MARCOS LEONARDO (5.50 at Bet365/Unibet) has the potential to notch 20 to 25 goals for Ajax. The 23-year-old Brazilian scored 30 in 51 for Al Hilal in two campaigns and in 2023/24 scored 8 in 17 for Benfica. His sharp movement, spatial awareness, and composure inside the box mirror Ajax’s fluid attacking style. Thriving on quick combinations and intelligent positioning rather than raw pace, he could prove ideal for Ajax who will try to dominate possession. His ability to drop deep and link play complements Ajax’s emphasis on technical forwards who contribute to build‑up, while his aerial threat and clinical finishing would add a decisive edge to their attacking rotations.

MEXX MEERDINK will see more game time at AZ if Parrott does fly out of Alkmaar – see what I did there? At a strong 25.00 with Unibet, he is worth a look at an outside chance but only if Parrott leaves will he stand a chance. Meerdink has struggled with injuries, and even when he is available, the hype that earned him a national‑team call‑up feels premature to me. His output is inefficient: five league goals in 881 minutes from 36 shots (7.2 shots per goal), and the previous season nine goals from 37 shots. Compare that to Ueda and Pepi’s numbers, Meerdink needs sharper shot selection and learn how to get into better positions and find himself some space before he becomes the player many pundits expect. And if Parrott leaves, and he can stay fit, you could see the best of him over the next 9 months.

WOUT WEGHORST at 21.00 with both Bet365 and Unibet. The big lad signed for FC Twente in the summer after a bit part season for Ajax the last. He scored 8 goals in 20 starts for the Amsterdammers last year. But even at 20/1, it’s not a great bet for me. Plus, Twente play with just one up front, he’s now 33 and Sam Lammers (also 20/1) will be waiting to jump in to share the load.

Let me reiterate that a massive caveat here with all top scorer anteposts is that some of these players may move on, or replaced by other contenders before September 1st. Just a few points on for some enjoyment here – stick to the staking plan!

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