Five bets picked out here and I will be incredibly quick with the reasoning as I have a busy few weeks ahead with the International Break approaching. Follow the site for tips throughout the next three weeks but for now, let’s dive into Saturday’s action in the Eredivisie.
SPARTA ROTTERDAM VS. SC HEERENVEEN
I think the draw looks a strong possibility here, with Sparta drawing two of their last five matches and Heerenveen sharing the points in three of their previous five outings. However, both sides are in desperate need of points, so a goalless stalemate does feel unlikely, but Both Teams to Score is priced too short for my liking.
I really like Milan Zonneveld to find the net. Correct scores such as 1-1, 2-2, or even a higher-scoring draw appeals to me, with the 22-year-old striker scoring four goals in his last four consecutive games, and is averaging an impressive 4.66 shots per 90 minutes for Sparta this season.
Sparta’s recent results have produced plenty of goals, with score lines of 3-1, 3-3, 1-2, 2-2 and 1-4. They are creating plenty of chances too, averaging five shots on target per game across their last four matches. Heerenveen, meanwhile, continue to look vulnerable defensively despite keeping a rare clean sheet in last weekend’s 0-0 draw with Telstar. They are also averaging around five shots on target per game, but have conceded nine goals in their last five matches while scoring six themselves. With both teams regularly involved in open games, another entertaining, high-scoring draw would not be a surprise. Two bets in this one.
AJAX VS. EXCELSIOR
Ajax face a tough test in Excelsior who have proved they are no slouches this campaign. Sitting in the sixth, Excelsior have scored 13 goals and conceded just seven goals in the first six games. They have won three, kept two clean sheets, drew 2-2 with NEC and lost at home to PSV and Utrecht both by 2-1.
Ajax are obviously favourites and I do think they will win, they are scoring goals for fun. Two 5-1 wins last two weeks at home to Willem II and away to Fortuna Sittard after tasting a 3-1 defeat to PSV. Prior to that they scored four without reply away to Telstar, beat Sion 9-5 over two legs in the Conference League qualifiers. They have two clean sheets all season so far in all competitions over 13 games: a 2-0 and 4-0 away to Zwolle and the aforementioned Telstar.
Excelsior can, and I think they will find the net on Saturday evening and I have to pick Irakli Yegoian to be involved again. The Georgian midfielder has six goal involvements in the six league matches so far, scoring twice with four assists. He is a handsome price for a goal or an assist.
WILLEM II VS. FORTUNA SITTARD
Let’s finish on a Bet Builder: Fortuna to win and Mohamed Ihattaren to score or assist. I’ve talked about Fortuna Sittard a lot this season already and how they have been surprisingly successful, well they face a Willem II that have not been a surprise. Coming up from the Eerste Divisie last season, it was thought they would struggle in the higher division this year and so far, they have. I cannot see them picking up a point here either.
Fortuna sit in seventh with ten points, Willem II on just 2 points and second bottom. The Tilburgers have conceded a massive 19 goals in the six games so far, scoring six times. Sittard have saw victories against ADO Den Haag, FC Groningen and SC Cambuur while losing to AZ Alkmaar and Ajax. They held champions PSV to a 2-2 draw at the Philips Stadion on the opening day. Despite last weeks’ 5-1 thumping off Ajax, they look in good stead to get third away victory of the season here and Mohamed Ihattaren looks most likely to be involved in a goal.
The Moroccan right-winger has found himself scoring three goals with two assists so far this season, and 1.11 goal involvements per 90 so far. This gives us a nice double in the late game on Saturday.
If you joining me with this selections, good luck.
SPARTA VS. HEERENVEEN ⚽️ BET 1: Draw 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.75 at Bet365
⚽️ BET 2: Milan Zonneveld to score 💷 1pt Best Odds: 2.63 at Sky Bet/Paddy Power
AJAX VS. EXCELSIOR ⚽️ BET 1: Ajax win/Both Teams to Score 💷 1pt Best Odds: 2.20 at Sky Bet
⚽️ BET 2: Irakli Yegoian to score or assist 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.20 at Bet365
WILLEM II VS. FORTUNA SITTARD ⚽️ BET BUILDER Fortuna win Mohammed Ihattaran to score or assist 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.75 at Bet365
Despite these two teams struggling below their expectations, this should be a cracking match on Friday at the Euroborg with lots of chances, goals and defensive lapses. I can’t trust either team to pick up the win but they’re should be goals at both ends writes Will Burns.
FC GRONINGEN
Despite a run of four matches without a victory, confidence remains high within the FC Groningen camp. Dick Lukkien’s side earned a 1-1 draw away to Go Ahead Eagles on September 12th, taking the lead through Brynjólfur Willumsson’s excellent strike from outside the box. Prior to that, Groningen shared a 2-2 draw with FC Twente at Euroborg, where Thom van Bergen and Tygo Land were both on the scoresheet.
The results may not have produced maximum points, but Groningen have continued to demonstrate their attacking quality. Before the draw with Twente, they were narrowly beaten 3-2 at home by Fortuna Sittard, with David van der Werff finding the net and an own goal from Justin Hubner helping to keep the contest alive until the closing stages. The recurring theme has been Groningen’s ability to create chances and score goals, although defensive errors have often prevented them from turning positive performances into victories.
Much of the spotlight has fallen on Thom van Bergen following a series of influential displays and important goal contributions, while local media continue to emphasise the importance of Euroborg as a difficult venue for visiting sides. Groningen are expected to be without Malcolm Jeng, Travis Hernes, Nikolas Brandis and Tyrique Mercera, while Ryan Metu remains a doubt. Even so, reports suggest Lukkien is likely to stick closely to the side that drew with Go Ahead Eagles, with Van Bergen and Willumsson once again expected to spearhead the attack as Groningen look to combine their attacking threat with greater defensive solidity.
PEC ZWOLLE
PEC Zwolle will be looking to bounce back from a disastrous and damn right humiliating 7-0 defeat to Feyenoord, a result that has dominated the headlines in the region this week. Feyenoord controlled the match from start to finish, enjoying 62% possession and ruthlessly exposing the defensive frailties that have become a growing concern for the Blauwvingers. This clash is the perfect opportunity for a response, although there are lingering doubts over both confidence levels and the team’s defensive organisation.
Results prior to that defeat paint a more mixed picture. Zwolle earned a respectable 2-2 draw away at Sparta Rotterdam, with Ibrahim Cissoko and Koen Kostons finding the net, while they also claimed an impressive 2-0 victory at sc Heerenveen thanks to goals from Nick Viergever and Kostons. Those performances demonstrate that PEC possess enough quality to trouble opponents, but their recent results also highlight an inability to consistently maintain the same level from week to week. The pressure on Zwolle head coach Henry van der Vegt has grew, and team news has not helped matters ahead of the trip to Euroborg. Midfielder Ryan Thomas has been ruled out, while Younes Namli, Filip Krastev and Sherel Floranus are also unavailable through injury or lack of fitness. The absences of Thomas and Namli are particularly notable given their experience and influence in midfield, leaving Zwolle slightly short of leadership and stability as they attempt to recover from last weekend’s heavy setback.
PREDICTION
While Groningen look the more likely winners on paper, I can’t trust either side to pick up a win. Groningen’s attacking performances have been encouraging, but they do concede, while PEC Zwolle are still searching for a response after their recent struggles. Goals look the most reliable angle, with both teams possessing enough quality to get goals and enough defensive vulnerabilities to make Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score both confidence selections.
At least three goals has landed in eight of the ten combined league matches (so have Over 3.5 Goals) involving these sides this season, while both teams have scored in every Groningen match and in three of PEC Zwolle’s six outings.
But let’s boost the Bet Builder, Koen Kostons and Brynjólfur Willumsson stand out as appealing shots-on-target selections. Kostons has recorded an effort on target in all but two league appearances this season (Feyenoord 7-0 and Ajax 2-0), while Willumsson has been one of Groningen’s most dangerous attacking outlets, scoring four goals in his last six matches and registering eight shots on target across the campaign.
In a single, Tobias Sommer is priced far too high to register a shot on target. The Zwolle midfielder has managed at least one effort on target in four of his six appearances this season and has recorded eight total shots during that period. Given PEC’s need to bounce back and the likelihood that they will have to contribute offensively to get a result in Groningen, the price on Sommer looks too generous.
If you joining me with this selections, good luck.
⚽️ BET 1: BET BUILDER Koen Kostons 1+Shots On Target Brynjólfur Willumsson 1+Shots On Target Over 2.5 Goals Both Teams To Score 💷 1pts Best Odds: 2.65 at Bet365
⚽️ BET 2: Tobias Sommer 1+Shots On Target 💷 1pts Best Odds: 3.00 at Bet365
We have midweek Eredivisie action with Ajax welcoming Willem II to the Johan Cruyff Arena as they look to keep pace in the title race. PSV sit top of the table on goal difference ahead of AZ, while Ajax trail the leading duo by six points in fifth place.
A victory on Tuesday would halve that deficit to just three points, move up to fourth and apply a little pressure on the teams above them. Will Burns expects the Amsterdammers to get the job done, although Willem II possess enough threat of their own.
AJAX
Last weekend, De Godenzonen were looking to bounce back from a 3-1 defeat to bitter rivals PSV, and they appeared in danger of dropping points for only the third time in the league this season when they entered the final half-hour of their match on Saturday against Fortuna Sittard. They were locked at 1-1 but Michael’s men produced a devastating late surge, scoring four times in the final half hour to secure an emphatic 5-1 victory.
In the league, they have struggled to turn the Johan Cruyff Arena into a fortress. Ajax are now winless in their last five home league matches stretching back to last season, collecting just two points from a possible 15, a statistic that may leave some supporters feeling uneasy ahead of Tuesday’s encounter. However, recent trends suggest there is every chance those concerns could quickly fade.
Ajax have opened the scoring in eight of their last 11 matches and will be confident of making another fast start against a Willem II side that has conceded the first goal in five of the previous six meetings between the clubs.
Michel will once again be without loan signing Simon Adingra, who remains sidelined with a foot injury and is still awaiting his Ajax debut. There are also concerns at the back, with experienced defender Daley Blind and young centre-back Aaron Bouwman both expected to be unavailable. However, Ajax have coped well in their absence, with the central defensive partnership of Youri Baas and Thilo Kehrer helping to steady the back line while also contributing at the other end of the pitch, with both finding the net in Saturday’s thumping of Fortuna Sittard.
One of the biggest positives for the hosts is the form of Davy Klaassen. The 33-year-old midfielder has enjoyed an excellent start to the campaign with four goals in the five games, and was once again on target in Saturday’s win at Fortuna.
WILLEM II
Scoring 19 goals last season, Devin Haen has continued to be the Tilburgers’ standout performer this season, with three goals in five starts. The 22-year-old, in his second season with the club, was on target last week netting a late equaliser with 10 minutes remaining against then league-leaders AZ Alkmaar, to earn his side a hard-fought away point.
Although that result delivered only Willem II’s second point of the campaign, the determination and resilience shown at the AFAS Stadion should provide a welcome confidence boost ahead of this difficult trip. Alongside ADO Den Haag, John Stegemen’s men remain one of only two Eredivisie sides yet to record a league victory this season. If they are to end that wait against Ajax, significant improvement is required in the final third. Willem II have managed just five league goals so far, the joint-lowest tally in the division alongside Telstar.
What will not help their cause is the several injury concerns at the moment. Jari Schuurman (back), Anass Zarrouk (surgery) and Amine Lackhar (groin) remain unavailable, while Thomas Didillon and Justin Hoogma continue their recoveries from hamstring and knee injuries respectively. Elsewhere, deadline-day arrival Vito van Crooy has yet to regain full fitness.
ANALYSIS
Ajax’s can’t be satisfied with their home form, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game at the Johan Cruijff ArenA, figures that, if they continue, will fall short of the standards expected from a side with title ambitions.
Despite the underwhelming home record by their standards, Ajax remain strong favourites for this clash. The gulf in quality between these sides is difficult to ignore and Willem II’s away form has been nothing short of disastrous. The visitors have collected just one point from four away fixtures and are conceding close to three goals per game on their travels. Their recent LLDLD sequence also reflects a side struggling for confidence, whereas Ajax’s WDWLW run suggests they are still capable of delivering results when required.
I am not one looking at head-to-head but I fully understand that you may be so… recent meetings between the two, as you’d imagine, have been largely dominated by the Amsterdam side. Since 2018, the clubs have faced each other nine times in league games, producing 25 goals at an average of 2.78 per game. Interestingly, the majority of those goals have arrived after the interval, with 13 scored in the second half, averaging 1.44 goals per match.
The fixtures have also generated plenty of attacking intent, with 63 shots on target recorded across the nine encounters, seven per game on average. Ajax have been responsible for the vast majority of that threat, registering 48 efforts on target. Overall, recent history points towards Ajax controlling proceedings, creating the lion’s share of chances and regularly finding the breakthrough against the Tricolores.
Back to current day, Michel’s men have shown their defensive frailties, and the numbers point towards an entertaining contest with goals at both ends, but one that ultimately favours the home side. I see a 3-1 or 4-1 victory to Ajax with the attacking quality proving decisive despite conceding a consolation goal.
PREDICTION
Ajax should have too much, but after only kept one clean sheet in the last nine, I see them conceding. Also Davy Klaassen is my pick to continue this scoring form.
If you joining me with this selections, good luck.
⚽️ BET 1: Ajax win/Both Teams to Score 💷 1pt Best Odds: 2.20 at Paddy Power/Sky Bet ⚽️ BET 2: Davy Klaassen to score Best Odds: 2.75 at Bet365
I caught a bit of the Twente game the other night and I had no idea how they only won 1-0 at home to SC Telstar. Twenty-two shots, eight of them on target, only one goal. Telstar hardly laid a glove on them and John van den Brom’s boys were out for blood… but only got a drop. On Saturday, they play ADO Den Haag, again at home and the week after they host PSV. They are in very good fifth position currently with ten points and will obviously want another win here, before the champions roll into town.
Having scored 10 goals and conceded five across their opening five league matches, Twente head into this fixture in strong form. ADO, meanwhile, find themselves in a very different situation. Sitting 17th in the table, they have collected just one point from their first five games. Their defensive struggles are reflected in the 14 goals conceded, while they have managed only six at the other end.
Their opening 2-0 defeat away at AZ was hardly a cause for concern, but the subsequent 4-1 home loss to Groningen raised alarm bells. That was followed by a 3-1 defeat at Go Ahead Eagles before they earned a commendable 2-2 draw at De Kuip, a venue where they have a habit of producing surprising results against Feyenoord.
Last weekend, ADO suffered a narrow 3-2 defeat to Fortuna Sittard, one of the early surprise packages of the campaign. Despite their poor results, I can see ADO finding the net here. They have scored in every match since drawing a blank against AZ and have netted twice in each of their last two outings.
With points desperately needed, I would not completely rule out an upset either. Twente recorded their first clean sheet of the season in Wednesday’s dominant victory over Telstar, but ADO’s attacking threat and sense of urgency could make them awkward opponents. A draw would certainly not surprise, then again, nothing in the league does. Hold on, didn’t a goalkeeper score two goals last weekend?
Both Teams to Score and Over 3.5 Goals pay £23.50 off £10.
GO AHEAD EAGLES VS. FC GRONINGEN
Three bets in this one as it’s a game I really like. First up, goals again on the cards here. The hosts have saw some goals at both ends in the first five games of the campaign. They won their opening contest 4-1 at home to Willem II, then drew at De Kuip (sound familiar?) by 2-2. Then a 3-1 win at home to ADO Den Haag, then thumped 5-2 by AZ at the AFAS Stadion before last weekend’s six goal thriller, a 3-3 away in Utrecht, a match that lasted many days due to crowd issues last Saturday.
Sitting seventh in the table with eight points, they have been involved in plenty of action at both ends of the pitch, scoring 14 goals and conceding 12 in their opening five matches. Their opponents on Saturday evening, FC Groningen, have posted similar numbers, finding the net 11 times while also shipping 12 goals. They currently sit 10th with seven points.
Dick Lukkien’s side shared a 2-2 draw with FC Twente last weekend, having suffered a 3-2 home defeat to Fortuna Sittard the week before. Prior to that, they were thrashed 5-1 by PSV at the Philips Stadion, although they had handed out a heavy defeat of their own a week earlier with a convincing 4-1 win away in Den Haag.
They also began the campaign with a 2-1 home victory over Utrecht, meaning their record after five matches stands at two wins, one draw and two defeats. Overall, it has been a respectable start to the season and their scoring goals, but their goalkeeper Etienne Vaessen has been busy picking the ball out of his net far too much. It’s a big price of 3.80 at Betfair for Over 4.5 Goals for these two sides who have hit it six times in the 10 combined games in the season thus far.
Another factor to consider is that neither side looks particularly likely to keep a clean sheet. Both teams have been vulnerable defensively throughout the season, which makes goals at both ends a strong possibility. I also took a look at the corner markets, and both teams to record at least four corners appeals. Go Ahead Eagles have won four or more corners in every league match this season, reaching five or more in four of those five games. They have also allowed five or more corners to their opponents in three of those fixtures.
Groningen’s numbers are similarly encouraging. They have earned at least four corners in four of their five matches, with the only exception coming in the 4-1 victory over ADO Den Haag. They have generally been solid in limiting opposition corner counts as well, only conceding five or more twice all season: nine against PSV and five against ADO. The Builder with BTTS and Both Teams Four or More Corners is 2.90 at Bet365.
Finally, one player I overlooked last weekend, and I shouldn’t have, is Go Ahead Eagles right-winger Soren Tengstedt. The Dane has scored four goals in his last five appearances and looks well placed to add to that tally in what could be another high-scoring contest.
What stands out is his efficiency. Tengstedt has registered just five shots on target across those five matches, yet four of them have ended up in the back of the net. Although he does take an average 2.37 shots per 90 so far this season and with his confidence high, the opportuities are likely to come in a game that promises chances at both ends, he is an attractive price. Sky Bet are offering 3.50 for Tengstedt to score anytime, and I’m not making the same mistake again this weekend.
⚽️ FC TWENTE VS. ADO DEN HAAG Both Teams to Score/Over 3.5 Goals 💷 1pt Best Odds: 2.35 at Sky Bet ⚽️ GO AHEAD EAGLES VS. FC GRONINGEN Over 4.5 Goals 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.80 at Betfair
⚽️ GO AHEAD EAGLES VS. FC GRONINGEN Both Teams to Score & Both Teams 4 or more corners 💷 1pt Best Odds: 2.90 at Bet365 ⚽️Soren Tengstedt to score (Go Ahead) 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.50 at Sky Bet
Just a quick article to cover two more Eerste Divisie goalscorers who fit the criteria for Saturday and Sunday in this weekend’s Dutch Double.
I like the profiles of Naoufal Bannis for Vitesse Arnhem and Henk Veerman for FC Volendam. First up, Vitesse travel to Roda JC on Saturday afternoon, with Bannis looking set to lead the line once again after finding the net in last week’s Friday Night Goalscorer Treble.
The Moroccan striker has enjoyed a staggering start to the campaign, scoring six goals in just five league outings. Across those starts, he has registered 14 shots on target, averaging 2.80 SOT per 90 minutes, which emphasises his goal scoring consistency. If you prefer to avoid the double, Bannis is available at 2.62 with BetMGM in the anytime goal scorer market.
Meanwhile, 35-year-old Henk Veerman is no stranger to this division or to finding the back of the net. In fact, his current form surpasses that of Bannis, with seven goals in five league outings, including a four-goal haul against FC Dordrecht on 28th August. A proven performer at this level, Veerman has scored 78 goals in 125 Eerste Divisie appearances during his career.
He is a much shorter price at 1.70 with both BetMGM and Betfred and, as regular readers will know, we do not back odds-on selections here. Instead, Veerman joins Bannis as the second leg of this weekend’s Dutch Double.
⚽️ THE DUTCH DOUBLE Naoufal Bannis (Vitesse) to score Henk Veerman (FC Volendam) to score 💷 1pt Best Odds: 4.45 at BetMGM
A bumper issue this Friday night for the Dutch First Division and I have a total of SEVEN bets for you. A treble, two six-timers and four singles all at incredibly good odds. No low priced bullshit here. Let’s GO!
GOALSCORER TREBLE
Over the years, I’ve found it profitable to combine three of the most in‑form strikers into a treble — provided the odds make sense.
Ferdy Druijf of Almere City let us down for the big winning treble last week missing a penalty. However, I’m sticking with him and Tristan Van Glist of Heracles Almelo. Druijf has notched five in five and Van Glist has got six in five, plus they are both on penalty kicks, unless Ferdy has been took off them by the gaffer.
Third is Jong PSV’s 18-year-old American striker Austyn Jones. I was so close to adding him in different bet last week at a cracking 2.88 price… and I didn’t… and he scored. I follow PSV very closely with having family in Eindhoven and Mr. Jones is a lad I had spotted for a while especially last year, when he scored nine goals in just eight games at Under-19 level.
He made his debut for Jong PSV at just 17, scoring four goals in 17 appearances, mostly those coming off the bench. In April last year, he broke through with three goals in two starts and over the last two matches, he’s taken on a leading role, starting as the number nine and scoring in both, after previously coming off the bench against RKC Waalwijk, where he also found the net. He rounds this week’s Goalscorer Treble.
MORE GOALS, GOALS, GOALS
We fell just one short on the Over 2.5 and two off the Over 3.5 accas last Friday, argh. With more games tonight (and a couple I’m avoiding), I’ve stuck with six again. Same plan as before: two accumulators, one for Over 2.5 Goals and one for Over 3.5 across all fixtures, because they land more often than the odds suggest.
Last week’s seven matches all produced at least three goals, and only two missed the four‑goal line. In Week 2, six games were played and only one finished under two goals. Tonight, the Over 2.5 acca pays £74.70 from a tenner, while the Over 3.5 returns £266 from £5.
I’ve put one point on the three‑plus‑goals acca and half a point on the four‑plus‑goals version. Hopefully we start hitting these consistently over the coming months.
Jong Ajax vs. RKC Waalwijk
FC Eindhoven vs. FC Dordrecht
FC Emmen vs. De Graafschap
Heracles Almelo vs. Jong AZ
NAC Breda vs. Jong FC Utrecht
VVV-Venlo vs. TOP Oss
FC EMMEN VS. DE GRAAFSCHAP
Freddy Quispel has quietly become one of the standout performers of the season. The FC Emmen forward has already scored six goals in five games, a huge jump from last year’s four in 27 and just one in 22 the season before. He’s hit a real purple patch, and against De Graafschap his to score anytime price looks far too big.
At 3.30 with BetMGM, the value is excellent. De Graafschap have been leaking goals at an alarming rate: five against Heracles, four to Almere City, two to VVV Venlo, and five at home to Jong AZ. They are haemorrhaging goals, and with Quispel in this kind of form, I can’t not put a point on here at least.
HERACLES ALMELO VS. JONG AZ ALKMAAR
That man again. Jean-Paul N’Djoli of Heracles got a hat-trick last week against De Graafschap. N’Djoli has scored NINE goals in the first five games of the season. He has scored at least two goals in FOUR games now.
BetMGM have at 12.00 for a hat-trick again this week which is worth half a point, and I’m sticking at point on him to score two at 4.50.
JONG AJAX VS. RKC WAALWIJK
And one last one and we should have been on him for a while but strangely his price is still standing up. Emre Unuvar is yet another guy that’s scored five goals in six games, and there’s another too. More on him in a moment. But Unuvar is priced up at 3.40 again at BetMGM, against a RKC Waalwijk side that has yet to keep a clean sheet this season and conceded two in three of the five games. He’s an official selection.
Another guy that you might want to keep an eye on is Diego Pugno. The 20-year-old Italian striker signed on loan from Juventus in the summer and has scored four goals in six games and has picked up three yellow cards so far – but we can’t bet on them. A goal for him is priced at 2.88. A decent price but I opted for the higher priced Unuvar for our official selection here.
That rounds out all the bets for a big Friday. Good luck!
⚽️ GOALSCORER TREBLE Ferdy Druijf (Almere City) Tristan Van Glist (Heracles) Austyn Jones (Jong PSV) 💷 1pt Best Odds: 12.00 at BetMGM (Boosted) ⚽️ OVER 2.5 GOALS ACCA 💷 1pt Best Odds: 7.47 at Bet365 ⚽️ OVER 3.5 GOALS ACCA 💷 0.5pt Best Odds: 53.36 at Bet365
⚽️ Freddy Quispel to score (FC Emmen) 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.30 at BetMGM
⚽️Emre Unuvar to score (Jong Ajax) 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.40 at BetMGM
⚽️Jean-Paul N’Djoli to score 2 or more goals (Heracles) 💷 0.75pt Best Odds: 4.50 at BetMGM
⚽️Jean-Paul N’Djoli to score 3 or more goals (Heracles) 💷 0.5pt Best Odds: 13.00 at BetMGM
We have midweek Eredivisie action this week as NEC face Excelsior on Tuesday and FC Twente host Telstar on Wednesday. These matches were rearranged from Matchday Three as both NEC and Twente were given the week off to qualify for Europe.
Meanwhile, first up, Tuesday early evening, NEC and Excelsior are searching for consistency after mixed starts to the season; NEC hope to feed off the home crowd, while Excelsior remain dangerous on the counterattack. Will Burns thinks goals is the best way to play this one.
NEC
Dick Schreuder’s NEC have always been entertaining and this season has proved no different. Finishing third last season, meant they had a chance to qualify for the Champions League in early August. They impressively dispatched Olympiakos over two legs before falling to Bodo/Glimt by an aggregate of 6-1. NEC’s keeper Gonzalo Crettaz was sent off inside three minutes of the second leg in Norway, and the Nijmegen side never recovered. They have dropped into the Europa League and have a visit to Juventus to look forward to their opening game later this month.
In between the European adventure, they sit in 10th in the Eredivisie on six points after losing both home games, and winning both their away and the goals have been raining in. Opening day, lost 2-1 at home to Telstar, then defeated Willem II 4-1 in Tilburg, followed up by beating PEC Zwolle 3-1 and then returning home last weekend to lose 3-1 to Feyenoord. A total of nine goals scored while letting seven in.
Kaj Sierhuis leads the line with two goals, operating mainly as a penalty‑box finisher. Bryan Linssen, now aged 35, adds another scoring option, while 37-year-old Dusan Tadic and 38-year-old Tjarron Chery provides creativity from midfield. Jamiro Monteiro anchors the centre of the pitch, tasked with slowing Excelsior’s transitions.
After Saturday’s defeat, NEC need a reset. It’s a chance to steady themselves in front of their own supporters, but the task is obvious: defend better and stop Excelsior from breaking in transition. That’s easier said than done. One of NEC’s most reliable defenders, Deveron Fonville, is sidelined, and his usual partner Philippe Sandler remains doubtful after missing five straight matches.
In recent games, NEC have relied on 36‑year‑old Bram Nuytinck, who made only seven league appearances last season, alongside 20‑year‑old Almugera Kabar. The summer signing from Borussia Dortmund is still adjusting to Eredivisie tempo — he hasn’t completed a full match yet, logging 15, 8, 45, 45 and 72 minutes across his last five outings. He started all of the last three but was substituted in each of them, highlighting NEC’s ongoing instability at centre‑back.
And against a free scoring Excelsior side… that could be a major problem.
EXCELSIOR
Excelsior arrive in significantly better form and sit fifth in the Eredivisie. They’ve been scoring freely and defending with real structure, netting ten goals and conceding only three across their first four matches. Their wins have been emphatic, 4–0 against Cambuur, 2–1 over Sparta, and 3–0 away at Willem II with only PSV managing to stop them, winning 2–1 in a match where, as expected, the champions controlled empathically.
Georgian midfielder Irakli Yegoian has been quite the revelation this season, scoring twice and three assists in the opening four games. The 22-year-old striker, David Garden, a summer signing from Quick Boys of the Tweede Divisie, has scored two goals, and looks set the lead the line in Nijmegen. The pace of Aymen Sliti down the right flank is exciting for the viewers and frightening for full-backs, while Icelandic winger Agust Thorsteinsson will be on the left. He signed from Breidablik midway through last month. Another summer signing, Iranian international Alireza Jahanbakhsh could feature against his old club, if he is fit after missing the game at the weekend due to injury.
Excelsior’s biggest strength is their efficiency: fewer chances, more goals, and a defensive unit that bends but rarely breaks.
ANALYSIS
Looking at the head-to-head results across the past five seasons, the two sides have met six times. Dick Schreuder’s team came out on top in four of those encounters, while Ruben den Uil’s side managed just one victory, with one match ending in a draw. Those fixtures produced a total of 22 goals, which is an average of 3.67 goals per game and the second half proved to be the most productive period. Sixteen of the 22 goals scored after the interval, working out to an average of 2.67 second‑half goals per match, highlighting how often these contests open up as the game progresses. In total, the teams generated 45 shots on target, averaging 7.5 per match. NEC were responsible for the majority of those efforts, recording 25 shots on goal.
If you look at the last five league matches of both clubs, Excelsior is doing better on paper. The Rotterdam outfit has won four games and lost one, while NEC has won three times and lost twice.
PREDICTION
I truly think Excelsior could get the job done here with Irakli Yegoian playing a big role again. The Georgian to score or assist is a big 3.30 at BetMGM and he managed both at the weekend against Willem II.
Excelsior are more than capable of scoring two and I’ve added that as part a builder at BetMGM. NEC have conceded at least two goals to Telstar, Bodo/Glimt twice and Feyenoord already this season, the missing first-team defenders, the inexperience at the back make this look more likely for me. NEC has scored at least one goals in five or the last six games, Excelsior has conceded goals to Sparta and PSV so far so Both Teams to Score seems probable too.
⚽️ BET 1: Both Teams to Score 2 or More Goals 💷 0.75pt Best Odds: 3.50 at Paddy Power ⚽️ BET 2: Irakli Yegoian to score or assist 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.30 at BetMGM ⚽️ BET BUILDER Excelsior to score two or more goals Both Teams to Score Irakli Yegoian to score or assist Irakli Yegoian to have a shot on target 💷 0.75pt Best Odds: 5.60 at BetMGM
We came so close nailing all four bets on Friday night in the Eerste Divisie and Monday night sees two more games, but I want to focus on FC Eindhoven’s trips to Utrecht for our next selection. Let’s get it.
PREVIEW
FC EINDHOVEN head into their clash with Jong FC Utrecht looking to bounce back from last weekend’s 3-1 home defeat to Heracles Almelo. Despite showing resilience at the Jan Louwers Stadium, the Blue and Whites were undone in the second half by the unbeaten visitors. This was their third defeat in a row but Manager Jan Poortvliet will hope that his Deadline Day reinforcements can inject fresh energy into his squad.
Danish attacking midfielder Lasse Abildgaard joined on loan from Willem II for the remainder of the season, while Rayan Buifrahi, a 21‑year‑old Moroccan‑Belgian winger, arrived on a free from Club Brugge. Both players are expected to bring pace and creativity to Eindhoven’s attack, although their history suggest they remain talents with something to prove.
Abildgaard began his career at Silkeborg in his homeland before being snapped up by Ajax at just 16. He made five appearances for Jong Ajax, scoring once, before moving to Willem II in January, where he featured four times as a substitute. Buifrahi, meanwhile, spent two seasons at MVV Maastricht before heading to Brugge, playing 59 matches and contributing just three goals and five assists. While neither player arrives with an exciting résumé, they will be eager to seize this new opportunity and establish themselves as key figures in Eindhoven’s push for consistency this season.
Eindhoven began the season positively with a late 1–0 win at Jong AZ, courtesy of Owen Renfrum’s header, but have since struggled to maintain consistency losing their next three. However, a 3-2 loss to MVV (2nd place currently), a 5-2 defeat away to Den Bosch (15th) and last weeks’ 3-1 home loss to table toppers Heracles, shows a side who have scored three goals against the top two teams in the division. Their opponents tonight, are neither of those sides.
With new signings in place and a point to prove, FC Eindhoven will aim to rediscover their winning form against JONG FC UTRECHT and I think they can. Utrecht’s young side come into the game in dreadful form, losing all five of their opening matches and sit bottom of the Keuken Kampioen Divisie. Although their schedule included MVV and Heracles too.
Their campaign began with a narrow 2–1 defeat away to MVV Maastricht, followed by a 3–1 home loss to Vitesse. Then a heavy 6–1 defeat against Heracles in Utrecht marked their lowest point so far. A 2–1 loss at TOP Oss came next, and last week Jong AZ edged them out with another tight 2–1 score line.
SELECTION
I think the hosts will win here as they do have the superior side and they have been finding the net, however, I’m unsure they can keep a clean sheet. In all five games for Jong Utrecht, both teams have found the net with at least three goals so if I feel Eindhoven can grab the win, I think there’s a chance we see goals at both ends. Eindhoven’s only win was in their opening game, the 1-0 win against Jong AZ, after that the goals have flew in, scoring five and conceding 11.
It’s early days in this league still but goals have been consistent throughout the league, throughout the country in fact.
⚽️ FC Eindhoven win/Over 2.5 Goals 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.50 at Bet365
Sunday brings a heavy dose of the Eredivisie’s underbelly, with four fixtures on the schedule. For today’s Dutch Double, Will Burns zeroes in on two of games, clashes featuring four sides eager to break into the space usually dominated by the Big Three, including one club with genuine championship ambitions.
FC Groningen host FC Twente in an intriguing Eredivisie showdown where both teams have something to prove. Groningen play exciting football but leak goals, while Twente are known for their possession and organisation. Even at this early stage, both coaches will be under pressure.
Groningen generate plenty of danger, they are averaging 14 big chances per match, but also fail to convert 11 of those. Their tendency to surrender early leads makes Twente to lead at half‑time is appealing. Dick Lukkien’s side are vulnerable in transition, a recurring problem that continues to cost them against organised opponents. That fragility was exposed in back‑to‑back defeats: a 3–2 loss at home to Fortuna Sittard last weekend and a heavy 5–1 beating away at PSV in the Philips Stadion the week previous. Those results abruptly halted what had been a perfect start to the campaign, with two wins from two — a 2–1 victory over Utrecht at the Euroborg and a convincing 4–1 win away at ADO.
Twente’s defensive structure is far more stable. They have allowed only 14 shots inside their own box across three matches, a sign of strong organisation and disciplined positioning. Their dominance in possession and frequent use of the flanks also means they win a lot of corners. They often they force opponents back and create repeated wide overloads, this could open Groningen up time and time again. Lukkien beware!!
However, in what seems to be a regular occurrence in the league, both sides have shown quality up top, and weaknesses at the back. Both Teams to Score in all four Groningen’s league games so far, for Twente, they played three league games without a clean sheet: 1-0 loss to Heerenveen, 3-1 win at home to PEC Zwolle and 4-1 win away to Cambuur. The season was interrupted by a European qualifying where a total of 9 goals were conceded in six games but they scored 11 times. BTTS should land here but I give the advantage to John van den Brom’s Twente when it comes to the final result.
Twente look like they’re beginning to find rhythm just as Groningen appear to be moving in the opposite direction. Fortuna Sittard, this season’s surprise package, exposed Groningen’s transition issues by hitting Lukkien’s side three times on the counter last weekend. Twente have the tools to do exactly the same. With pace on both wings and in midfield, and Wout Weghorst acting as a powerful focal point who can hold the ball and bring others into play, the likes of Younes Taha, Marko Pjaca and Sondre Ørjasaeter are well‑placed to exploit the spaces Groningen leave behind. It wouldn’t surprised me if any of those four ended up on the scoresheet.
The table-topping AZ Alkmaar head to the Abe Lenstra Stadium with a perfect four wins out of four with thirteen goals scored and only three conceded. Leeroy Echteld has shaped AZ into genuine title contenders since becoming permanent head coach in April, he led them to their KNVB Beker triumph over NEC Nijmegen and the emphatic 4–0 victory over ten‑man PSV in the Johan Cruyff Schaal. SC Heerenveen approach the match from a very different position. Robin Veldman’s side have struggled for consistency after a mixed start, and three injuries in defence make selection even more complicated. Facing this high‑flying AZ team is a serious early‑season examination.
Heerenveen opened the campaign impressively with a 1–0 win away at FC Twente but since then, they have slipped into a run of draws, interrupted by a 2-0 defeat at home to PEC Zwolle. Two 2–2 draws, against Ajax and Willem II, will give them confidence against AZ, but they too often fail to finish matches strongly. In attack, there are bright spots. Right-winger Jacob Trenskow has two goals and an assist in the four league matches, while on the left, Maxence Rivera provides threat with an average of 2.5 shots on target per match.
Defensively, there are concerns as they have conceded six goals in four matches, including two goals in each of the two away draws. With two regular defenders missing, the back line is particularly vulnerable, and AZ possess exactly the kind of attacking power that can exploit that. Mees Hilgers is sidelined with a knee‑ligament injury, while first choice right-back, Mats Egbring has an ankle issue, so Oliver Braude steps in at right‑back to complete a patched‑up back line.
For AZ, Echteld’s compact, attack‑minded system has delivered four straight with Mexx Meerdink finally proving he is threat up front. Their defensive structure has been just as impressive, but the only minor concern is the injury to right‑back Denso Kasius.
So with the visitors’ prolific attack and a solid defence, and combine that with Heerenveen’s injuries at the back, I see this being an away win. It will be difficult for the hosts to to match the AZ’s tempo, though Trenskow or Rivera could still produce a moment at home. Ultimately, I see AZ being victorious and claiming their fifth win, but I wouldn’t put you off backing Both Teams to Score in this one.
Heerenveen have conceded at least two goals in each of their last three matches, and in the 2–2 draw with Ajax they were already two goals down by half‑time. AZ, meanwhile, have shown a habit of striking early: they’ve scored in the first half in two of their four league games, and they also led at the break in their Johan Cruyff Schaal win over PSV. I see AZ exploding out of the blocks here and adding an AZ goal in the first half will bump up the Bet Builder below.
⚽️ DUTCH DOUBLE Groningen vs. Twente: Both Teams to Score Heerenveen vs. AZ: Both Teams to Score 💷 1pts Best Odds: 2.10 at Unibet ⚽️ BET 2: FC Twente win/Both Teams to Score 💷 1pts Best Odds: 3.50 at Sky Bet ⚽️ BET 3: BET BUILDER AZ win Over 2.5 Match Goals AZ to score in the first half 💷 1pts Best Odds: 2.74 at BetMGM
One of the biggest games of the season is here already in Week Five of the Eredivisie when reigning champions PSV Eindhoven visit Amsterdam to face Ajax. PSV arrive in slightly stronger form and the question is whether the Ajax can maintain their edge but again, one thing is for sure, there will be goals writes Will Burns.
AJAX
Both sides remain unbeaten in the league so far, and both sides form has not been entirely perfect. For Michel’s Ajax, their only home match so far ended in a 2–2 draw with Heerenveen. They have picked up two wins away from home: 2–0 at PEC Zwolle and 4–0 at Telstar. Against Telstar, Ajax has a restricted first half before Steven Berghuis broke the game open. Davy Klaassen headed in the opener from a Berghuis corner, and Ajax added three more goals in the second half through Berghuis, Tolu Arokodare and substitute Marcos Leonardo. Berghuis has become Ajax’s most decisive player this season, with one goal, two assists and his ability to both shoot and create from the right flank makes him the key link in Michel’s attacking setup.
Defensively, Ajax have impressed. Marc‑André ter Stegen, on loan from Barcelona, has kept two clean sheets in the three league matches and has saved 86.7% of shots on target and he will be busy against PSV this evening. Only against Heerenveen did things go wrong, with the defence caught twice on the counter.
The Conference League workload also plays a role: Ajax played six European matches in August, including two‑legged ties against Vojvodina, Shelbourne and Sion. Could that schedule could take its toll in the second half of this match? Maybe.
Michel will be without Daley Blind, Rayane Bounida and Viktor Tsygankov, who is not yet eligible despite his recent move from Girona. While loan signing from Sunderland, Simon Adingra is also doubtful. Ajax are expected to stick with the 4‑3‑3 system that worked so well against Telstar. The back four is likely to be Anton Gaaei, Aaron Bouwman, Youri Baas and Caio Henrique. Baas may be preferred over Dies Janse at centre‑back due to his experience in big matches. New signings, Sofyan Amrabat (DM) and Thilo Kehrer (CB) are available, but may lack the tactical awareness or match fitness to start such a high‑intensity fixture this early into their Ajax career.
So the midfield is expected to remain unchanged, with Davy Klaassen, Jorthy Mokio and Julian Brandt forming the trio. Mokio’s ability to receive under pressure will be tested heavily by PSV’s aggressive press, while Klaassen’s late runs into the box could be crucial against a PSV midfield that often pushes forward and leaves space behind.
In attack, Steven Berghuis is the obvious focal point after his standout performance against Telstar and Tolu Arokodare provides a strong central presence, with Oscar Gloukh adding technical quality behind him. Ajax have scored 17 goals in their last five matches and conceded only two in the league, but Telstar still created a dangerous transition chance when Mokio lost possession. Against PSV’s far more ruthless attack, similar errors are unlikely to go unpunished.
PSV
Despite a shaky start to the season, a 2-2 home draw against Fortuna Sittard, PSV have recovered to be the Eredivisie’s most productive attacking side. Their 15 goals in four matches give them an average of 3.75 per game, boosted heavily by the results against FC Groningen (5–1) and FC Utrecht (6-1). Against Utrecht, PSV showed how lethal they can be when given space. After Artem Stepanov put the hosts ahead, Ruben van Bommel equalised within five minutes. Guus Til turned the match around before half-time. In the final quarter, Mauro Junior, Sven Mijnans, Til again and Sergiño Dest made it six.
Five different PSV players have scored twice in the league so far: Guus Til, Ricardo Pepi, Ivan Perišić, Ruben Van Bommel and Sergiño Dest. That spread makes PSV unpredictable and difficult to defend, with danger coming from almost every position. But on the other hand, PSV have yet to keep a clean sheet this season. The five goals conceded in four matches point to a defensive vulnerability Ajax can exploit, especially with Steven Berghuis, Oskar Gloukh and Tolu Arokodare in form.
While Ajax have had to contend with qualifying for the Conference League throughout the summer, PSV do benefit from a fresh schedule. Their first European commitments is next Thursday, when Shakhtar Donetsk visit in the Champions League, Peter Bosz’s side have had optimal preparation time for this top clash.
However he does have quite the injury list. Jerdy Schouten, Alassane Pléa, Dennis Man and Kylian Sildillia are all out as is Sami Ouaissa, new singing from NEC earlier this week. Joey Veerman’s departure to Borussia Dortmund left a gap in midfield, but 18‑year‑old Noah Fernandez has filled the role impressively and forms a stable pairing with Kodai Sano. Bosz is expected to use the 4‑2‑3‑1 system that dismantled Utrecht, with Perišić, Til and Van Bommel behind U.S.A. international striker Pepi.
The starting line-up should see Matej Kovář should start in goal behind a defence of Sergiño Dest, Ryan Flamingo, Armando Obispo and Mauro Júnior. The midfield of Noah Fernandez, Kodai Sano and Guus Til gives PSV an excellent blend of control and penetration and ahead of them, Ivan Perišić, Ricardo Pepi and Ruben van Bommel have all scored twice this season.
The American right-back Dest has also been highly productive with two goals and two assists, while Amir Bouhamdi has created three big chances. PSV have scored 15 goals in their last five matches, but they have not kept a clean sheet in that run, a vulnerability Ajax will feel they can exploit.
HISTORY
Across recent seasons, Ajax and PSV have produced a remarkably balanced and often dramatic rivalry, reflected clearly in their last five Eredivisie meetings: two straight 2–2 draws in 2026 and 2025, a 2-0 Ajax win in Eindhoven in March 2025, a 3–2 Ajax victory in November 2024, and a 1–1 stalemate earlier that same year.
And the broader historical picture is just as tight. Over 140 league clashes, PSV hold a marginal edge with 56 wins to Ajax’s 54, while the goal tally is almost perfectly level at 233–232 in PSV’s favour. Despite that long-term balance, and PSV’s dominance with the league title in recent years, Ajax come into this encounter unbeaten in the last five Eredivisie meetings between the sides. PSV’s last league win over their rivals, well you have go back to October 2023, a 5–2 triumph at the Philips Stadion.
REASONING
Ajax and PSV meet here both in great form in front of goal, creating chances with ease and scoring freely. The Amsterdammers host here and do come into the fixture unbeaten in their last five Eredivisie meetings with PSV, yet their defensive stability is still not fully convincing. PSV, meanwhile, have produced eleven goals in their last two league matches and possess the pace and individual quality to punish any gaps Ajax leave. But, and it’s a big but, their own defensive record offers little reason to expect a comfortable night in Amsterdam.
Looking at the history earlier, this match always proves to be an open contest and I feel this will be no different, with the last two encounters finished 2–2, and once again a match with chances at both ends feels inevitable. If you fancy the 2-2, it is best priced at 10.5 with Unibet. On paper, calling a winner is difficult, and a high‑scoring draw remains a realistic scenario and the draw comes in at 4.00 with Paddy Power and Spread Ex.
However, I am going to play this one a bit more careful and if we get four goals in this match, you have to think both team will find the net. That is priced at 1.80 with Bet365 and as you know… when don’t do short prices here!
So into the player markets we go…
Danish right-back Anton Gaaei may find himself in trouble today. He made five fouls against Telstar, three in the away leg against Sion and one away to Shelbourne in the Conference League qualifiers. He will be up against Ruben Van Bommel and Mauro Junior down the left. Van Bommel’s stats for fouls drawn are not attractive, but the Brazilians is. He was fouled three times in the 6-1 drubbing of Utrecht. He is 4.00 at Bet365 to collect a yellow or a red.
However, former Ajax youth Sergiño Dest has our key to profit this evening. The American international got two players booked against Utrecht and Ajax left-back Caio Henrique looks primed to being his next victim. Dest won a total of SEVEN fouls last weekend, one the week prior against Groningen and SIX against Excelsior in his first Eredivisie outing of the new season. Caio Henrique is usually composed and committing 1.08 fouls per 90 this season but this is a high-octane contest between two rivals, in front of 55,000 rabid fans. His best price to see a card off referee Sander van der Eijk is also 4.00 at Bet365.
Van der Eijk has dished out seven cards in the first two fixtures he has officiated domestically this season and this fixture has saw four or more cards hit three times in the last five. Have a look but I cannot find total cards markets anywhere across the bookies I have available and I would imagine Over 3.5 Cards would be priced too short.
Keep an eye on this article. I may add more selections as the day goes on.
If you joining me with this selections, good luck.
⚽️ BET 1: Draw 💷 1pts Best Odds: 4.00 at Boyle Sports ⚽️ BET 2: Caio Henrique to be booked 💷 1pts Best Odds: 4.00 at Bet365
Week Five of the Eredivisie begins with Sparta vs. PEC Zwolle. Hardly the most mouth-watering of contests on paper, however, a game that promises goals… I promise. I’ve pulled together a Bet Builder for our first official bet of the season. Follow our Profit and Loss here.
SPARTA ROTTERDAM
Sparta Rotterdam’s start to the season has been inconsistent as the campaign opened with a narrow 1-0 Rotterdam derby defeat to Feyenoord, followed by getting a win under their belt with a strong 3–1 away win at SC Telstar. A 3–3 home draw followed with FC Utrecht, which showcased Sparta’s attacking intent while revealing defensive issues, then the momentum slipped again when Excelsior claimed a 2–1 win in the second Rotterdam derby. With four points from four matches, Sparta sit mid‑table in twelfth place.
Sparts, now failing to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches. Offensively, the team tends to find its rhythm after half-time if that floats your boat, scoring more frequently in the second half than in the first. Over the course of 38 league games last term, Sparta netted 47 goals, an average of 1.24 per match, with 24 of those coming at home and 23 away. The side registered 115 shots on target, averaging just over three per game.
Behind the scenes, change has been significant. Rogier Meijer, appointed this summer to replace Maurice Steijn, is making his official debut season at Het Kasteel. Known from his NEC tenure for building disciplined, well‑structured teams, Meijer has already brought more organisation to Sparta’s play. But his must tackle of execution rather than creation. Sparta do generate plenty of chances but lacks the finishing edge to turn control into consistent results, a gap Meijer will be eager to close as the season progresses.
The markets for the Eredivisie are very limited compared to the major leagues, but here’s some information if you need it. Marvin Young and Milan Zonneveld lead the scoring charts with two goals apiece, with Zonneveld finding the net in last two consecutive matches. Nick Verschuren and Young have each scored once with a header, while Robin van Cruijsen and Nökkvi Thórisson both struck with their left foot. Zonneveld’s brace came via his right. Meanwhile, Bas Kuipers has contributed two assists, which is priced best at 6.50 at Ladbrokes and Coral if they are available to you.
PEC ZWOLLE
Like, PEC Zwolle have not been convincing and endured a difficult start to the season. Henry van der Vegt’s side opened with a 2-0 defeat to Ajax and followed it up with another two goal loss away at FC Twente, this time by 3–1. Their only bright moment came in Heerenveen, where they claimed a 0–2 victory. But any momentum quickly faded: in the fourth round they suffered a 1–3 home defeat to NEC. With just three points from four matches, PEC currently sit fifteenth in the table.
The numbers paint a clear picture. Zwolle have conceded at least two goals in every league match so far, and I cannot see this changing here. However, at the same time, they’ve managed to score in three of those four games, showing there is attacking potential, even away from home. Van der Vegt will need to restore balance quickly, before the gap to the rest of the league begins to widen and no one wants to see PEC Zwolle in relegation trouble. Well, no one apart from Go Ahead Eagles’ fans.
Zwolle found the net 48 times across 38 league matches last season, averaging 1.26 goals per game, with 22 of those coming at home and 26 away. The team produced 86 shots on target in total, an average of 2.26 per match, which illustrates that they could create chances but often struggled to generate sustained the attacking pressure at times.
It’s early days, but Koen Kostons is Zwolle’s leading scorer with two goals, having found the net in at least two consecutive matches. He and Nick Viergever have each scored once with their left foot, while Kostons and Elias Sørensen (remember him Newcastle United fans?) have both produced a right‑footed goal. Dylan Mbayo has added creativity to the attack with two assists, rounding out the key contributions for the Blauwvingers so far.
REASONING
PEC Zwolle do rely heavily on their quite prolific number 10, Koen Kostons. Last season, he scored 11 in 34 games and yes, already has two goals in four outings this term. He has had at least one shot on target in the last three games and two against sc Heerenveen, the match before last. He will be on penalty kicks, despite missing one against NEC last weekend, as he scored one in the first half and he also had a goal disallowed via VAR just before the hour mark. Sparta had conceded a total of 16 shots on target in the first four games, so I’m confident that Mr. Kostons can grab us one here.
I’ve already spoke about how both sides can score and concede and I expect both goalkeepers to pick the ball out of their net this evening and I’m siding with the home side to get the win. Sparta return home to Het Kasteel, and at home they have already shown they can score freely, the aforementioned 3–3 draw with FC Utrecht is proof of that. Combined with the fact that PEC’s defence has been breached at least twice in every league game so far, I think Sparta outscores Zwolle here.
Like I mentioned above, Van der Vegt’s Zwolle boys have scored in three of their last four matches, including away at sc Heerenveen, showing they can threaten on the road. Even so, some caution is warranted. PEC enter this match on the back of three straight defeats and confidence is low, and a leaky defence does not automatically guarantee that the attack will deliver so we risk just a point here on a well priced Bet Builder.
If you joining me with this selections, good luck.
⚽️ BET BUILDER Koen Kostons 1+Shots On Target Sparta Rotterdam win Both Teams To Score 💷 1pts Best Odds: 4.33 at Bet365
My second favourite league in world football fires up mostly on Friday and Monday nights — the Kitchen Champion Division (Keuken Kampioen Divisie) and yes, it’s sponsored by a kitchen company. This league is so profitable, the strikers always turn up the heat in the box and cook up goals. I’ll stop… maybe.
Anyway, every Friday on TotalDutchFootball.com I’ll be baking a fresh batch of bets from this league. Goals are usually overflowing from the pan. Defences get burnt far too easily, while the midfielders and forwards stay sharp as knives. For forks sake, let’s get into it.
Follow our Profit and Loss here.
GOALSCORER TREBLE
Something I have found profitable over the years is lumping three of the most in-form strikers into a treble as long as the price is right.
Ferdy Druijf of Almere City knows this league very well and has started the season on fire. He has scored five goals in the first four games and tonight against Jong Ajax, who have conceded 14 in four games, he looks in good stead to add to his tally. I wouldn’t be surprised if either Emre Unuvar or Diego Pugno for Ajax get on the scoresheet also, they have scored five and four goals themselves in four games respectively.
Heracles, my favourite to win the division this season, has saw Jean Paul N’Djoli and Tristan Van Glist score the majority of their 16 goals. Van Glist is the designated penalty taker and a bigger price and that is the only reason why I have stuck him in here between the pair. N’Djoli has scored six in four games but failed to get on the scoresheet last week in the 3-1 away win against FC Eindhoven – Van Glist did. He has scored in all four games and have five goals in his account.
Last but no means least, Moroccan striker Naoufal Bannis looks too good to be at Vitesse Arnhem this season. He has also scored five and one assist across the four games, failing to score in just one, so he grabbed two braces against Jong Utrecht and last week versus FC Den Bosch. Now entering his second season with the Arnhem side, he may just be hitting a purple patch after just nine goals in 31 outings last year but he looks the business this year indeed.
MORE GOALS, GOALS, GOALS
So I’ve gone for Over 2.5 Goals and Over 3.5 Goals in each of the games this evening in two accas. Reason being this lands, quite often, more often than the odds suggest.
Tonight’s fixtures only covers a total of six games. Last week we had seven and ALL seven games hit three goals or more and only two fixtures missing out on the four goals or more. There was six games on Week 2 and only one game ended with two goals, all the others were over.
For Over 2.5 we are getting 8.64 for all six games to hit the mark and for the Over 3.5 were are getting 68.13. I have stuck a point on the three goals or more acca and half a point on the four or more and lets see if we can hit a few of these in the coming months.
HERACLES VS. DE GRAAFSCHAP
Like I mentioned earlier, Heracles were my pick to win the KKD before a ball was kicked, and after their storming start you can still grab 3.75 at Bet365. You might want to slip into an accumulator if that’s your bag. But tonight, De Graafschap head to the Asito Stadion, where around 12,000 fans should be treated to yet another goal fest.
Heracles’ season so far reads like a highlight reel. A 4–3 thriller away at VVV on opening night, a 3–2 home win over Den Bosch, six goals fired past Jong FC Utrecht in week three (6-1), and a tidy 3–1 victory away at FC Eindhoven last weekend. De Graafschap, meanwhile, have been leaking goals all over the shop, making this a scary game for them.
Their campaign opened with a 1–1 draw against Helmond Sport, followed by a 5–2 home defeat to Jong AZ (who didn’t use any Eredivisie regulars). Then came a 2–1 loss to VVV and, last week, heavy 4–1 beating at home by Almere City.
Heracles -1 sits at 2.10 with Bet365 and I’m putting a point on it. If you fancy pushing the boat out on the -2, I wouldn’t advise you against it. De Graafschap have already been hammered twice this season.If you joining me with this selections, good luck.
⚽️ GOALSCORER TREBLE Ferdy Druijf (Almere City) Tristan Van Glist (Heracles) Naoufal Bannis (Vitesse) 💷 1pt Best Odds: 8.06 at BetMGM (Boosted) ⚽️ OVER 2.5 GOALS ACCA 💷 1pt Best Odds: 8.64 at Bet365 ⚽️ OVER 3.5 GOALS ACCA 💷 0.5pt Best Odds: 68.13 at Bet365
⚽️ Heracles -1 vs. De Graafschap 💷 1pt Best Odds: 2.10 at Bet365
NOTE: After September 2nd, expect a significant increase in betting content. By then, the transfer window will be settled and I will have a semi-strong data set to take a more serious, analytical approach in our betting tips.
A free Telegram channel will launched for early access to all bets and in‑play betting, full match previews, and additional bets, alongside expanded coverage will be here on the website and free on Substack.If you enjoy betting for fun on the Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie, the KNVB Beker, or European competitions, make sure to check back from September 3rd — that’s when the content really ramps up.
Thanks for the support as always and keeping TotalDutchFootball.com alive.
Will
Five big games on Sunday in the Dutch top flight but focusing on the big three: PSV, Feyenoord and Ajax, Will Burns thinks all three favourites will win, but not without their troubles in defence.
FC UTRECHT VS. PSV
FC Utrecht have taken just one point from three matches and already shipped nine goals and they’re far from where they want to be and now they play PSV. Insert gritted teeth emoji. The champions have started slowly themselves, but exploded last weekend with a 5–1 win over FC Groningen.
For Utrecht, there were positives against Sparta last week. Utrecht led three times and looked set for a 3-2 win before conceding in the 96th minute but that was a huge contrast to the 4-1 smashing at home to AZ, where they allowed 24 shots and collapsed straight after the half‑time break.
Going forward, Utrecht aren’t struggling. They’ve scored in all three league games, with Artem Stepanov on target against AZ and Sparta, and he scored inside three minutes against PSV last April. He knows how to trouble this defence. While PSV, showed there is life after Joey Veerman last week defeating Groningen by 5-1. Despite another summer of changes, Peter Bosz’s side were ruthless. Ivan Perišić struck twice, Ricardo Pepi scored again, and Ruben van Bommel impressed. Pepi is starting to look sharp: three starts, two goals, and plenty of confidence.
Defensively, PSV aren’t perfect. Fortuna, Excelsior, and Groningen all scored against them, while Utrecht have scored in every match. A quiet afternoon for PSV’s back line seems unlikely. Recent meetings between Utrecht and PSV also point to goals. PSV won 1–2 in Utrecht last season, but Utrecht led at the break. The April clash finished 4–3, and the five previous league meetings all saw both teams score. PSV should win and handsomely, but the combination of Utrecht’s attack and PSV’s defensive issues should see goals at both ends.
FEYENOORD VS. ADO DEN HAAG
The second match sees Feyenoord, seven points after three matches, face ADO Den Haag, who are still on zero, and the gap in quality is clear heading into this game at De Kuip. Still, both teams have shown a pattern, Feyenoord dominate early but lose control after half‑time, while ADO often respond better in the second half. That contrast gives this match an interesting angle.
Giovanni van Bronckhorst’s side look sharp going forward and they blasted SC Cambuur 5-2 last weekend, with Luciano Valente, Ayase Ueda and Gjival Zechiël all scoring. So focusing on the first halves in their season so far, they have proven to be excellent: 1–0 up at Sparta, 2–0 up against Go Ahead, and 4-0 ahead away in Cambuur, so Feyenoord consistently put opponents under pressure early. But in a strange pattern, after the half-time break, things get messy. Sparta pushed late though it finished 1-0, Go Ahead came back to 2–2, and Cambuur scored twice in the second half. Feyenoord start well but don’t always finish well.
It’s been a tough start for ADO’s return to the league with three defeats to AZ, FC Groningen and Go Ahead Eagles. The 4-1 loss to Groningen showed how costly mistakes are at this level and still, they don’t just sit back. ADO held out for long spells against AZ, scored through Yannick Eduardo after the break against Groningen, and stayed competitive for much of the first half against Go Ahead before Evan Rottier made it 2–1.
They concede plenty, but they keep playing and keep looking for chances. That approach carries risk at De Kuip, but it also gives them a better chance of creating something than sitting deep for 90 minutes. Again, Feyenoord should have far too much for ADO, but conceding four goals in the last two games against Go Ahead and Cambuur should give confidence to Den Haag, and ourselves that will see a goal in both ends.
SC TELSTAR VS. AJAX
Finally, Ajax travel to SC Telstar and again we go with the favourites to win with Both Teams to Score. Why? Well the Amsterdammers head to Telstar with very different preparation levels. Telstar had a break last weekend, while Ajax were still in European action on Thursday. The Amsterdammers have more quality, but last season’s trip to Velsen‑Zuid showed it can be tricky.
Henk Brugge’s side started well with three points from two matches, including a surprise 2-1 away win at NEC thanks to early goals from Patrick Brouwer and Rui Mendes in the opening game of the season. Telstar’s first home match was tougher. They saw more of the ball against Sparta, but the visitors created the better chances and ended up winning 3-1.
Telstar seem to thrive when they can counter, but struggle when they must take the initiative. Against Ajax, they’ll likely sit deeper again and use the pace of Patrick Brouwer, Rui Mendes and Soufiane Hetli on the break. Ajax come into this one with four points from two league games, but they have been inconsistent. They needed late goals to beat PEC Zwolle and let a 2–0 lead slip to 2–2 against SC Heerenveen. In Europe, however, they have been far more productive, scoring freely (22 goals in six games) against Vojvodina, Shelbourne and FC Sion but conceded 10 times. Goals aren’t the issue, maintaining stability for 90 minutes is and that vulnerability gives Telstar some confidence.
Telstar will need to be aware of Tolu Arokodare, a loan signing from Wolves. The Nigerian striker notched three goals in the two legs against Sion and is set to start against Telstar with five shots on target.
⚽️ BET 1: PSV win and Both Teams to Score 💷 1.5pt Best Odds: 2.50 at Bet365
⚽️ BET 2: Feyenoord win and Both Teams to Score 💷 1.5pt Best Odds: 2.30 at Bet365
⚽️ BET 3: Ajax win and Both Teams to Score 💷 1.5pt Best Odds: 2.60 at Bet365
⚽️ BET 4: TREBLE PSV win and Both Teams to Score Feyenoord win and Both Teams to Score Ajax win and Both Teams to Score 💷 1pts Best Odds: 14.95 at Bet365
