SATURDAY 5TH SEPTEMBER 2026 – FROM 19:00 BST
🇳🇱 EREDIVISIE – WEEK FIVE⚽
AJAX vs. PSV
One of the biggest games of the season is here already in Week Five of the Eredivisie when reigning champions PSV Eindhoven visit Amsterdam to face Ajax. PSV arrive in slightly stronger form and the question is whether the Ajax can maintain their edge but again, one thing is for sure, there will be goals writes Will Burns.
AJAX
Both sides remain unbeaten in the league so far, and both sides form has not been entirely perfect. For Michel’s Ajax, their only home match so far ended in a 2–2 draw with Heerenveen. They have picked up two wins away from home: 2–0 at PEC Zwolle and 4–0 at Telstar. Against Telstar, Ajax has a restricted first half before Steven Berghuis broke the game open. Davy Klaassen headed in the opener from a Berghuis corner, and Ajax added three more goals in the second half through Berghuis, Tolu Arokodare and substitute Marcos Leonardo. Berghuis has become Ajax’s most decisive player this season, with one goal, two assists and his ability to both shoot and create from the right flank makes him the key link in Michel’s attacking setup.
Defensively, Ajax have impressed. Marc‑André ter Stegen, on loan from Barcelona, has kept two clean sheets in the three league matches and has saved 86.7% of shots on target and he will be busy against PSV this evening. Only against Heerenveen did things go wrong, with the defence caught twice on the counter.
The Conference League workload also plays a role: Ajax played six European matches in August, including two‑legged ties against Vojvodina, Shelbourne and Sion. Could that schedule could take its toll in the second half of this match? Maybe.
Michel will be without Daley Blind, Rayane Bounida and Viktor Tsygankov, who is not yet eligible despite his recent move from Girona. While loan signing from Sunderland, Simon Adingra is also doubtful. Ajax are expected to stick with the 4‑3‑3 system that worked so well against Telstar. The back four is likely to be Anton Gaaei, Aaron Bouwman, Youri Baas and Caio Henrique. Baas may be preferred over Dies Janse at centre‑back due to his experience in big matches. New signings, Sofyan Amrabat (DM) and Thilo Kehrer (CB) are available, but may lack the tactical awareness or match fitness to start such a high‑intensity fixture this early into their Ajax career.
So the midfield is expected to remain unchanged, with Davy Klaassen, Jorthy Mokio and Julian Brandt forming the trio. Mokio’s ability to receive under pressure will be tested heavily by PSV’s aggressive press, while Klaassen’s late runs into the box could be crucial against a PSV midfield that often pushes forward and leaves space behind.
In attack, Steven Berghuis is the obvious focal point after his standout performance against Telstar and Tolu Arokodare provides a strong central presence, with Oscar Gloukh adding technical quality behind him. Ajax have scored 17 goals in their last five matches and conceded only two in the league, but Telstar still created a dangerous transition chance when Mokio lost possession. Against PSV’s far more ruthless attack, similar errors are unlikely to go unpunished.
PSV
Despite a shaky start to the season, a 2-2 home draw against Fortuna Sittard, PSV have recovered to be the Eredivisie’s most productive attacking side. Their 15 goals in four matches give them an average of 3.75 per game, boosted heavily by the results against FC Groningen (5–1) and FC Utrecht (6-1). Against Utrecht, PSV showed how lethal they can be when given space. After Artem Stepanov put the hosts ahead, Ruben van Bommel equalised within five minutes. Guus Til turned the match around before half-time. In the final quarter, Mauro Junior, Sven Mijnans, Til again and Sergiño Dest made it six.
Five different PSV players have scored twice in the league so far: Guus Til, Ricardo Pepi, Ivan Perišić, Ruben Van Bommel and Sergiño Dest. That spread makes PSV unpredictable and difficult to defend, with danger coming from almost every position. But on the other hand, PSV have yet to keep a clean sheet this season. The five goals conceded in four matches point to a defensive vulnerability Ajax can exploit, especially with Steven Berghuis, Oskar Gloukh and Tolu Arokodare in form.
While Ajax have had to contend with qualifying for the Conference League throughout the summer, PSV do benefit from a fresh schedule. Their first European commitments is next Thursday, when Shakhtar Donetsk visit in the Champions League, Peter Bosz’s side have had optimal preparation time for this top clash.
However he does have quite the injury list. Jerdy Schouten, Alassane Pléa, Dennis Man and Kylian Sildillia are all out as is Sami Ouaissa, new singing from NEC earlier this week. Joey Veerman’s departure to Borussia Dortmund left a gap in midfield, but 18‑year‑old Noah Fernandez has filled the role impressively and forms a stable pairing with Kodai Sano. Bosz is expected to use the 4‑2‑3‑1 system that dismantled Utrecht, with Perišić, Til and Van Bommel behind U.S.A. international striker Pepi.
The starting line-up should see Matej Kovář should start in goal behind a defence of Sergiño Dest, Ryan Flamingo, Armando Obispo and Mauro Júnior. The midfield of Noah Fernandez, Kodai Sano and Guus Til gives PSV an excellent blend of control and penetration and ahead of them, Ivan Perišić, Ricardo Pepi and Ruben van Bommel have all scored twice this season.
The American right-back Dest has also been highly productive with two goals and two assists, while Amir Bouhamdi has created three big chances. PSV have scored 15 goals in their last five matches, but they have not kept a clean sheet in that run, a vulnerability Ajax will feel they can exploit.
HISTORY
Across recent seasons, Ajax and PSV have produced a remarkably balanced and often dramatic rivalry, reflected clearly in their last five Eredivisie meetings: two straight 2–2 draws in 2026 and 2025, a 2-0 Ajax win in Eindhoven in March 2025, a 3–2 Ajax victory in November 2024, and a 1–1 stalemate earlier that same year.
And the broader historical picture is just as tight. Over 140 league clashes, PSV hold a marginal edge with 56 wins to Ajax’s 54, while the goal tally is almost perfectly level at 233–232 in PSV’s favour. Despite that long-term balance, and PSV’s dominance with the league title in recent years, Ajax come into this encounter unbeaten in the last five Eredivisie meetings between the sides. PSV’s last league win over their rivals, well you have go back to October 2023, a 5–2 triumph at the Philips Stadion.
REASONING
Ajax and PSV meet here both in great form in front of goal, creating chances with ease and scoring freely. The Amsterdammers host here and do come into the fixture unbeaten in their last five Eredivisie meetings with PSV, yet their defensive stability is still not fully convincing. PSV, meanwhile, have produced eleven goals in their last two league matches and possess the pace and individual quality to punish any gaps Ajax leave. But, and it’s a big but, their own defensive record offers little reason to expect a comfortable night in Amsterdam.
Looking at the history earlier, this match always proves to be an open contest and I feel this will be no different, with the last two encounters finished 2–2, and once again a match with chances at both ends feels inevitable. If you fancy the 2-2, it is best priced at 10.5 with Unibet. On paper, calling a winner is difficult, and a high‑scoring draw remains a realistic scenario and the draw comes in at 4.00 with Paddy Power and Spread Ex.
However, I am going to play this one a bit more careful and if we get four goals in this match, you have to think both team will find the net. That is priced at 1.80 with Bet365 and as you know… when don’t do short prices here!
So into the player markets we go…
Danish right-back Anton Gaaei may find himself in trouble today. He made five fouls against Telstar, three in the away leg against Sion and one away to Shelbourne in the Conference League qualifiers. He will be up against Ruben Van Bommel and Mauro Junior down the left. Van Bommel’s stats for fouls drawn are not attractive, but the Brazilians is. He was fouled three times in the 6-1 drubbing of Utrecht. He is 4.00 at Bet365 to collect a yellow or a red.
However, former Ajax youth Sergiño Dest has our key to profit this evening. The American international got two players booked against Utrecht and Ajax left-back Caio Henrique looks primed to being his next victim. Dest won a total of SEVEN fouls last weekend, one the week prior against Groningen and SIX against Excelsior in his first Eredivisie outing of the new season. Caio Henrique is usually composed and committing 1.08 fouls per 90 this season but this is a high-octane contest between two rivals, in front of 55,000 rabid fans. His best price to see a card off referee Sander van der Eijk is also 4.00 at Bet365.
Van der Eijk has dished out seven cards in the first two fixtures he has officiated domestically this season and this fixture has saw four or more cards hit three times in the last five. Have a look but I cannot find total cards markets anywhere across the bookies I have available and I would imagine Over 3.5 Cards would be priced too short.
Keep an eye on this article. I may add more selections as the day goes on.
If you joining me with this selections, good luck.
| ⚽️ BET 1: Draw 💷 1pts Best Odds: 4.00 at Boyle Sports ⚽️ BET 2: Caio Henrique to be booked 💷 1pts Best Odds: 4.00 at Bet365 |
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