Over the past three seasons, the Eredivisie Golden Boot winner has consistently hit at least 24 goals. Ayase Ueda led the way last season for Feyenoord with 25, Sem Steijn struck 24 for FC Twente the year before, and in 2023/24 Luuk de Jong and Vangelis Pavlidis shared the honour with 29 each. In short, it usually takes around 25 goals to claim the boot so here’s the contenders, who I like and who I don’t.
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WHO’S GONNA BE TOP SCORER?
AYASE UEDA is the frontrunner at the bookies (3.60 at Unibet) scoring 26 in 40 games last season, however I would be avoiding him at that short price. Not saying he can’t win the boot, but in his three seasons at Feyenoord, he scored 26 in all competitions in 40, 9 in 31 and 5 in 37 so to say he found a purple patch last time out could be an accurate statement and he might not be as prolific this season. However, hitting 25 league goals from 102 shots (4.08 shots per goal) and averaged 0.89 goals per 90 are bloody good numbers for the Japanese hitman.
PSV marksman RICARDO PEPI is only 4.00 at Bet365 and Unibet for the USA international, who did notch 16 goals last year, finishing third in the boot race. He scored those goals while just taking 61 shots – an incredible ratio averaging 1.02 goals per 90. Amazingly, the season prior he was scoring 1.45 goals per 90, so it obvious to see why he is that short. He would be my favourite for this year’s boot. He was set to move to Fulham last season, but the noise of a move out of Eindhoven has died down for now.
My pick would be TROY PARROTT (6.50 at Bet365/Unibet) but it is a big if, if he stays in the league. In all competitions, he hit 31 goals and 10 assists in 48 games for AZ last year, 20 in 47 the year before, and delivered standout performances internationally, including five goals against Portugal and Hungary in World Cup playoffs. His form has attracted major interest from Ajax, PSV and clubs abroad, underlining how lethal he has become since arriving in Holland and well capable of outscoring everyone. If he stays at AZ, he has a chance. If he is off to Ajax and PSV, I would make him favourite. Again, it’s a risk as he could be off elsewhere by September 1st.
In the same bracket as Parrott, I would be serious looking at MIKA GODTS of Ajax. Coming second in the Golden Boot last year with 17 goals, and with the squad looking stronger he could grow on that. But it looks likely he is off with PSG despite Ajax flat out rejecting the bids for the Belgian. De Telegraaf report that Ajax want at least €60 million for him, PSG apparently nowhere near that yet. He’s priced up at 25.o0 at Unibet which is an absolutely great price.
As I mentioned in the last preview here, MARCOS LEONARDO (5.50 at Bet365/Unibet) has the potential to notch 20 to 25 goals for Ajax. The 23-year-old Brazilian scored 30 in 51 for Al Hilal in two campaigns and in 2023/24 scored 8 in 17 for Benfica. His sharp movement, spatial awareness, and composure inside the box mirror Ajax’s fluid attacking style. Thriving on quick combinations and intelligent positioning rather than raw pace, he could prove ideal for Ajax who will try to dominate possession. His ability to drop deep and link play complements Ajax’s emphasis on technical forwards who contribute to build‑up, while his aerial threat and clinical finishing would add a decisive edge to their attacking rotations.
MEXX MEERDINK will see more game time at AZ if Parrott does fly out of Alkmaar – see what I did there? At a strong 25.00 with Unibet, he is worth a look at an outside chance but only if Parrott leaves will he stand a chance. Meerdink has struggled with injuries, and even when he is available, the hype that earned him a national‑team call‑up feels premature to me. His output is inefficient: five league goals in 881 minutes from 36 shots (7.2 shots per goal), and the previous season nine goals from 37 shots. Compare that to Ueda and Pepi’s numbers, Meerdink needs sharper shot selection and learn how to get into better positions and find himself some space before he becomes the player many pundits expect. And if Parrott leaves, and he can stay fit, you could see the best of him over the next 9 months.
WOUT WEGHORST at 21.00 with both Bet365 and Unibet. The big lad signed for FC Twente in the summer after a bit part season for Ajax the last. He scored 8 goals in 20 starts for the Amsterdammers last year. But even at 20/1, it’s not a great bet for me. Plus, Twente play with just one up front, he’s now 33 and Sam Lammers (also 20/1) will be waiting to jump in to share the load.
Let me reiterate that a massive caveat here with all top scorer anteposts is that some of these players may move on, or replaced by other contenders before September 1st. Just a few points on for some enjoyment here – stick to the staking plan!
| 🇳🇱EREDIVISIE TOP SCORER🇳🇱 ⚽ BET 1: Troy Parrott (AZ) to win 💷 1pt Best Odds: 6.50 at Bet365/Unibet ⚽ BET 2: Ricardo Pepi (PSV) to win 💷 1pt Best Odds: 4.00 at Bet365/Unibet ⚽ BET 3: Mika Godts (Ajax) to win 💷 0.75pt Best Odds: 25.00 at Unibet |
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